XAUUSD breaks records: a gold boom amid global instability

After hitting a new all-time high, XAUUSD prices are forming a corrective wave and trading around 4,670 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 19 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD quotes once again set a price record
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 January 2026: 4,730

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD forecast shows that gold prices continue their upward momentum. At this stage, quotes have reached another all-time high and are trading near 4,670 USD per ounce.

Factors influencing XAUUSD price dynamics:

• Geopolitical and political uncertainty. Political developments continue to pressure the independence of the Federal Reserve, weakening the USD and further increasing demand for gold
• Current market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve rates affect prices: easing monetary policy will reduce real yields on US assets and push XAUUSD quotes higher
• Amid uncertainty and geopolitical risks, gold continues to act as a safe-haven asset, which sustains stable demand

Escalating international tensions and tariffs imposed by the US on other countries continue to pressure the USD, maintaining steady demand for gold.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue to form an upward wave following the pattern signal. Given that XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the upside target may stand at the 4,730 USD level.

At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also considers an alternative scenario, where prices undergo a correction towards the 4,630 USD level before resuming growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish (with a consolidation phase)
• Key resistance levels: 4,670 and 4,730
• Key support levels: 4,630 and 4,530

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Holding above the 4,670–4,680 USD zone and an upside breakout from the current consolidation will indicate market readiness to resume the upward movement after a pause.

The risk-to-reward ratio stands at approximately 1:2. Potential profit upon reaching the target is around 60 pips, with possible losses capped at 30 pips.

• Buy Stop: 4,670 USD
• Take Profit: 4,730 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,640 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A short scenario is possible if prices break and consolidate below the 4,520 USD support zone, which will increase the risks of a deeper correction after the strong impulsive growth in early January.

• Sell Stop: 4,515 USD
• Take Profit: 4,450 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,555 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the bullish scenario include a further reduction in geopolitical tensions around Iran, strong US macroeconomic data that could reduce expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as profit-taking after two consecutive weeks of gold gains.

Summary

Geopolitical factors continue to support stable demand for gold. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests further growth towards the 4,730 USD level.

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