Rising uncertainty in global markets supports XAUUSD

XAUUSD prices continue to rise amid escalating geopolitical tensions around Greenland, currently trading at 4,710 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Demand for safe-haven assets strengthened amid the escalation of the situation around Greenland
• Investors fear the start of a large-scale trade confrontation between the US and Europe
• Geopolitical risks continue to rise, worsening expectations for global economic growth
• XAUUSD forecast for 20 January 2026: 4,730

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the second consecutive trading session. Buyers confidently overcame the key resistance level at 4,635 USD, which previously restrained the bullish momentum. Gold receives sustained support due to growing demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions around Greenland.

The market reacts to increased pressure from US President Donald Trump, who once again asserts claims over Greenland. Investors fear that such rhetoric may trigger a large-scale trade confrontation between the US and Europe. Analysts emphasise that the current trade tensions differ in nature from last year’s tariff conflicts; however, the level of uncertainty for the global economy remains elevated.

Geopolitical risks continue to intensify. A new wave of trade uncertainty worsens expectations for global growth, while US foreign policy actions undermine confidence in the US dollar. This combination of factors creates a favourable environment for further growth in gold and silver prices, maintaining a bullish outlook for XAUUSD today.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD chart, quotes are showing strong growth within the established bullish channel. Buyers are confidently holding prices above the EMA-65, indicating continued upward momentum.

The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests an attempt to extend growth towards the 4,835 USD level. Technical indicators confirm the dominance of bullish sentiment. The Stochastic Oscillator once again rebounded from the upward trendline, while its signal lines turned upwards, increasing the likelihood of another bullish impulse.

Growth is further supported by a confident rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. Key confirmation of the upside scenario will be consolidation of XAUUSD above the 4,785 USD level, which will indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the bullish channel. In this case, the probability of a rapid move towards the target level increases significantly.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,745 and 4,780
• Key support levels: 4,680 and 4,575

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

XAUUSD prices holding above the 4,705 USD level signal market readiness to continue the upward move and create favourable conditions for opening long positions.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the target amounts to approximately 13,000 pips, with possible losses capped at 3,500 pips.

• Take Profit: 4,835 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,670 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A short scenario is possible if prices break and consolidate below the lower boundary of the bullish channel under the 4,665 USD level, which will increase the probability of a bearish correction developing after the current upward impulse.

• Take Profit: 4,575 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,680 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the bullish XAUUSD scenario include a reduction in geopolitical tensions around Greenland, an unexpected strengthening of the US dollar, and possible profit-taking after two consecutive sessions of gold growth.

Summary

Escalating geopolitical tensions, rising demand for safe-haven assets, and declining confidence in the US dollar create favourable conditions for further strengthening of gold. The XAUUSD forecast for today indicates a continued bullish scenario and a high probability of further growth towards 4,835 USD, provided prices consolidate firmly above the 4,785 USD level.

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