Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: long-term outlook remains positive

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a phase of moderate correction. The decline in prices was triggered by profit-taking and a temporary strengthening of the US dollar, which reduced interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, fundamental factors, such as central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of dovish Fed policy, continue to support the market.

This review explores the key factors that may influence gold’s performance from 10–14 November 2025.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics: gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating after a sharp rally that saw it reach a new all-time high at 4,378 USD per ounce. After an 11% correction, prices stabilised around 3,950–4,000, indicating a balance of power between buyers and sellers
• Support and resistance: the key support level lies at 3,900, followed by 3,780–3,720, with the resistance level located in the 4,110–4,378 range. A breakout above 4,110 would confirm the resumption of the upward momentum, while a move below 3,900 would signal the development of a deeper correction
• Fundamentals: following the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut and Powell’s cautious comments, the market underwent a correction. Mild expectations for December easing and partial stabilisation in US-China relations reduced demand for safe-haven assets. However, central bank demand continues to support gold
• Outlook: the baseline scenario for the week suggests sideways consolidation in the 3,900–4,050 range with a short-term upside potential if prices break above 4,050. The medium-term structure remains bullish, and fundamental factors continue to bolster gold as a key hedging instrument

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) entered a consolidation phase after a sharp rally that began in mid-August, gaining around 32% and reaching an all-time high at 4,380 USD per ounce. By the end of October, prices corrected by 11% to 3,900, but the decline paused, with gold recently hovering around 4,000, indicating stabilisation.

The correction began with profit-taking ahead of major events, including the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Fed’s decision, and the US inflation report. The leaders’ meeting was constructive but lacked concrete agreements, temporarily dampening safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 0.25 percentage points, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further easing in December is not guaranteed.

The US government shutdown further added to uncertainty by delaying the release of key economic data.

This decline may represent a natural pause after a strong rally.

Market support remains driven by official demand. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased 220 tonnes of gold in Q3, bringing the total for the year to 634 tonnes, close to the record levels of 2023.

Amid geopolitical tensions, rising US government debt, and inflows into gold ETFs, the fundamental case for gold remains strong.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily timeframe, gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade in a correction phase after the strong rally that culminated in a record high at 4,378 in mid-October. Following profit-taking and reduced volatility, the metal is hovering above the key support level at 3,900, signalling stabilisation after the sell-off.

Price movement is concentrated near the middle Bollinger Band, reflecting consolidation and a balance between buyers and sellers. MACD confirms weakening upward momentum: the histogram is falling, and the indicator lines are converging, pointing to a pause in growth. The Stochastic Oscillator remains in the neutral zone, leaving room for a short-term upward rebound.

Key levels remain unchanged: resistance at 4,114 and 4,378 and support at 3,900 and 3,780. As long as gold holds above the lower boundary of the range, the medium-term trend remains bullish. However, consolidation below 3,900 would indicate a deeper correction towards the 3,720–3,600 area.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains moderately positive. Following the correction from the all-time high around 4,378 USD per ounce, the market has stabilised, and short-term volatility has declined. Despite cautious Fed signals and a temporary dollar rebound, gold finds support from central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of further monetary easing in 2026. An additional stabilising factor is the ongoing US government shutdown, which increases demand for safe-haven assets.

• Buy scenario

Long positions remain a priority if prices hold above 3,900–3,930. A breakout above the 4,050 resistance would open the path towards 4,200–4,250, while consolidation above 4,110 would strengthen the momentum towards 4,370–4,400. A dovish Fed tone and weak US labour data could act as additional growth catalysts.

• Sell scenario

Short positions become relevant if prices break below 3,840. In this case, targets shift towards the 3,720–3,600 zone, where the nearest support areas are located. Pressure on the metal would increase with a stronger dollar, rising US bond yields, and waning safe-haven demand.

Conclusion: gold remains in the 3,900–4,050 range with signs of stabilisation. The baseline scenario for the coming days is consolidation above 3,930 with recovery potential towards 4,200. A breakout below the 3,840 support level would confirm a developing correction, although the medium-term trend remains bullish due to strong fundamental factors.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating after rallying and hitting a record high near 4,378 USD per ounce. The correction is unfolding amid profit-taking and declining volatility, yet the market remains resilient thanks to safe-haven demand, central bank interest, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Key levels remain within the following zones: support at 3,900–3,930 and resistance at 4,050–4,110. A breakout above the 4,110 level would open growth potential towards 4,200–4,250, while consolidation below 3,900 would increase the risk of a correction towards 3,720–3,600.

The overall trend remains moderately bullish, and this consolidation may serve as a base for the next growth impulse.

Open Account