Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: 5% price growth lays solid ground for further rise

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a stable recovery phase following the October correction. The rally is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weak private US labour market data, and uncertainty due to the delay in official statistics caused by the government shutdown. Demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated, with central banks continuing to support the market through steady purchases.

This review examines key factors that could impact gold dynamics during 17–21 November 2025, including the resumption of macroeconomic data releases after the shutdown, Fed members’ speeches, and the market's technical structure following the breakout into the 4,180–4,200 range.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics: XAUUSD closed the week near a three-week high around 4,180 USD per ounce (+5%) amid growing uncertainty in the US economy and stronger expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Demand for safe-haven assets remained elevated
• Support and resistance: key support levels lie at 4,050 and 3,880–3,883, while resistance is located at 4,230–4,250. A consolidation above 4,250 would be the first signal for a retest of the highs. A return below 4,050 would open the way to 3,880
• Fundamentals: private job market data points to a cooling economy. Companies have been cutting jobs for several weeks. The market is pricing in a roughly 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Gold benefits from this as a safe-haven asset
• Forecast: the base scenario for the coming days is consolidation within the 4,050–4,250 range, with growth potential if prices break above the upper boundary. A firm move above 4,250 would open the way to 4,370–4,380. The lack of momentum and a strengthening dollar could push gold back to the 4,050 and 3,880 zones. The medium-term trend remains bullish

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) closed the week near a three-week high around 4,180 USD per ounce. The metal gained nearly 5% amid growing uncertainty in the US economy and rising expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve. Demand for safe-haven assets remained strong.

Markets reacted positively to the news that the longest government shutdown in US history was coming to an end. The House of Representatives approved a temporary budget, with the document pending only the president’s signature. However, uncertainty has not completely dissipated. The White House warned that official employment and inflation data for October may be delayed, depriving investors of key economic indicators.

Private labour market estimates confirm a cooling economy. Companies have been cutting jobs for several consecutive weeks. This has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, with the market currently pricing in about a 65% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut.

Against this backdrop, gold remains one of the main beneficiaries of weak economic data and dovish central bank commentary. This trend is supporting steady growth throughout the week.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,190–4,200 USD per ounce, gradually recovering after the October correction. The current movement unfolds below the all-time high of 4,378 USD, which remains the key resistance level for the medium-term trend. Prices hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands channel, indicating a recovery impulse. The upper band lies in the 4,350–4,380 zone, aligning with a key reversal pressure area. The middle band serves as the nearest support near 4,000–4,050 USD.

MACD indicates weakening downward momentum: the histogram moves towards the zero line, and the indicator lines are converging, hinting at a potential transition to a consolidation phase. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, confirming the recent upward move but also suggesting a possible short-term pullback from current levels.

Key levels are as follows: resistance is located at 4,230–4,250 and 4,378 USD, while the support level lies at 4,050 and 3,883 USD. The chart overall shows that gold has exited a deep correction phase and moved into stabilisation, but faces strong resistance. A consolidation above 4,250 will signal a retest of the all-time high, while a lack of momentum could return prices to the 4,050–3,880 range.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains confidently positive. After rising nearly 5% over the week, XAUUSD stabilised near a three-week high. The market finds support in expectations of a December Fed rate cut, the delayed release of official statistics due to the US government shutdown, and weak private labour market data.

Uncertainty in the US increases demand for safe-haven assets, and steady central bank interest helps gold maintain upward momentum even below the key resistance zone of 4,230–4,250.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are preferred while prices hold above 4,050, the nearest strong support level. A breakout above the 4,230–4,250 resistance zone will open the path to a retest of the all-time high at 4,378. A consolidation above this area will strengthen the potential for a rise towards the 4,400+ zone. Additional drivers include dovish Fed comments, delayed official data, and weak labour market statistics.

• Sell scenario

Short positions become relevant if prices break below 4,050.

In that case, targets shift to the 3,880–3,900 area, where the next demand zone lies. Downward pressure will increase if the US dollar strengthens, bond yields rise, and demand for safe-haven assets weakens after the resumption of official US statistics.

Conclusion: gold is hovering within the 4,050–4,250 range, showing signs of stable consolidation. The base case for the coming days is consolidation above 4,050 with potential recovery towards 4,230–4,250. A breakout below 4,050 will signal a deeper correction, but the medium-term trend remains upward due to strong fundamental factors.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near 4,180 USD per ounce — at a three-week high. The nearly 5% gain was accompanied by rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, delays in official data due to the government shutdown, and signs of labour market weakness in private reports. Against this backdrop, demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated, with consistent central bank interest supporting the fundamental trend.

Technically, the chart points to consolidation after recovery. Key support levels are located in the 4,050–3,900 area, while resistance levels lie at 4,230–4,250 and the all-time high at 4,378. A breakout above 4,250 will open the door for a retest of peak levels. A pullback below 4,050 will raise the risk of a return to 3,900 without changing the medium-term upward structure.

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