Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: baseline scenario turns neutral

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a consolidation zone near a two-week high. Prices are supported by firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, currently priced at around 80% despite mixed US economic data.

This report analyses the key factors that will influence gold’s performance during the period of 1–5 December 2025. The focus is on delayed US macroeconomic data releases after the government shutdown, potential Fed rate guidance, and the technical structure within the 4,050–4,150 range, where XAUUSD settled after the October correction.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics: gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near a two-week high. The market continues to price in an 80% likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. Additional attention was drawn by reports that Kevin Hassett has become the leading candidate for Fed chair
• Support and resistance: gold is trading within a medium-term range between 3,883 and 4,378, with support at 4,050 (middle Bollinger band) and 3,883 (key boundary) and resistance at 4,250–4,280 (upper Bollinger band), and 4,378 (all-time high)
• Fundamentals: expectations for a December policy easing remain high. Hassett’s nomination is viewed by participants as supportive of a dovish policy stance. Gold is heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain and has already added nearly 60% year-to-date
• Outlook: the baseline scenario is neutral. The main expectation is continued consolidation within the 4,050–4,250 range amid a slowdown in bullish momentum. The medium-term uptrend remains intact

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) closed the week near a two-week high. Investors are increasingly pricing in a December Fed rate cut despite mixed US data.

Initial jobless claims came in below expectations, while durable goods orders exceeded forecasts. However, this did not sway expectations of an imminent policy easing.

Markets currently estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December at approximately 80%. Expectations of easing were reinforced by reports that Kevin Hassett, economic advisor to former President Donald Trump, is being considered a leading candidate for Fed chair. Market participants see him as favouring a dovish policy course.

Gold is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The precious metal has already gained nearly 60% year-to-date and is aiming for its best annual performance since 1979.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading at around 4,140–4,160 per ounce, remaining in a consolidation phase following the October correction. Prices are moving within the medium-term range between 3,883–4,378. The lower boundary serves as key support, and the upper boundary as historical resistance – the point from which a sharp pullback occurred in October.

The current candlesticks are forming in the upper half of Bollinger Bands, indicating a moderate recovery impulse. The indicator’s midline, around 4,050, acts as near-term dynamic support. The upper Bollinger band in the 4,250–4,280 area serves as immediate resistance.

MACD remains in positive territory, although its histogram is narrowing significantly, signalling weakening bullish momentum after the October peak and a shift towards sideways movement. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered overbought territory (80–85), suggesting a risk of a local pullback or pause in growth.

Overall, gold is holding above the key support level at 3,883, remaining in a strong long-term uptrend. The nearest resistance level lies in the 4,250–4,378 area. A solid breakout above 4,250 is needed to resume the upward move; otherwise, the market may continue to trade within the 4,050–4,250 range.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains steadily positive. Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near a two-week high amid growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. The market is pricing in an 80% chance of easing, despite jobless claims and durable goods orders beating forecasts. Reports that Kevin Hassett is the leading Fed chair candidate added to dovish expectations. Gold is heading for its fourth monthly gain and is up nearly 60% year-on-year. The market remains in a consolidation phase within the 4,050–4,150 range.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are appropriate as long as prices hold above the nearest dynamic support level at 4,050 (middle Bollinger band). A breakout above the 4,250–4,280 resistance would open the door to a retest of the all-time high at 4,378. A consolidation above this zone would allow gold to target the 4,400+ area. Bullish drivers include dovish Fed commentary, confirmation of a December rate cut, and weak macroeconomic data, especially given shutdown-related data delays.

• Sell scenario

Short positions become relevant if prices break below 4,050. In this case, targets shift to the 3,883–3,900 area, the next significant demand zone. Additional pressure on XAUUSD may come from a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, and renewed risk appetite following fresh data releases.

Conclusion

Gold remains within the 4,050–4,150 range, reflecting a phase of steady consolidation after the October correction. The baseline scenario suggests sideways movement with the potential to return to 4,230–4,250 if easing expectations persist. A breakout below 4,050 would signal the start of a deeper correction towards the 3,883 area, with the medium-term trend remaining bullish.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near a two-week high but remains in a consolidation phase. The market is pricing in an 80% probability of a December Fed rate cut, despite mixed US data.

The technical picture remains neutral. XAUUSD is consolidating within the 4,050–4,150 range, holding above the key support level at 3,883. Resistance lies in the 4,250–4,280 area. A breakout above this zone would open the path towards the all-time high at 4,378. A drop below 4,050 would increase the risk of a deeper correction, but the medium-term trend remains upward.

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