EURUSD looks shaky: the US dollar receives support

The EURUSD pair stalled at 1.1535, with the market no longer expecting the Fed to cut rates in December. Discover more in our analysis for 21 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair reacts to US data and outlook
• Current trend: the Fed is unlikely to cut the interest rate in December
• EURUSD forecast for 21 November 2025: 1.1500

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the EURUSD rate stopped falling and settled at 1.1535. Markets have revised their expectations and now consider a December Fed rate cut unlikely. The mixed US labour market report had little impact on this assessment.

The delayed employment release showed an acceleration in job growth in September, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level in four years. This publication is the final employment figure before the December Federal Reserve meeting. It reinforced expectations that the regulator will maintain its current policy in light of heightened uncertainty after the prolonged government shutdown.

Additional pressure came from the Fed’s comments: Michael Barr noted that with inflation still above the target, the regulator should act cautiously and avoid rushing into further rate cuts.

The EURUSD outlook is downbeat.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows a weak recovery after the sharp decline, with the overall structure remaining bearish.

After breaking below the 1.1560 mark, the price accelerated its fall and tested the 1.1500 support level, from which a technical pullback began. The current move remains limited, with quotes currently hovering around 1.1535–1.1540, below the nearest resistance at 1.1560, which is now the key barrier for any further recovery.

Bollinger Bands indicate elevated volatility, and the price is moving near the middle line, signalling an attempt at stabilisation. The Stochastic Oscillator is rising from oversold territory, confirming the corrective nature of the move. Meanwhile, MACD remains deep in negative territory – the decline is slowing, but there are still no signs of a reversal.

The key levels include resistance at 1.1560, with the next one at 1.1656. The support level lies at 1.1500. A breakout below this mark would intensify pressure, opening the way towards 1.1450.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is correcting upwards after the sell-off, while the structure remains bearish. The EURUSD forecast for today, 21 November 2025, suggests renewed selling pressure towards 1.1500 if a catalyst emerges.

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