Trump threatens tariffs – USDJPY poised to test key support

The USDJPY rate is falling as Japan’s economic data partially improves. The price currently stands at 143.45. Find more details in our analysis for 2 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s manufacturing PMI was revised to 49.4 in May 2025
• Manufacturing sector employment in Japan rose at the fastest pace since April 2024
• USDJPY forecast for 2 June 2025: 142.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is declining on Monday, suggesting a possible test of the next support level at 142.15. The Japanese yen has strengthened for the third consecutive trading session, supported by renewed global trade tensions that are increasing demand for safe-haven assets. The rise in uncertainty follows Friday’s statement from Donald Trump, who threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%.

The au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI was revised upwards to 49.4 in May 2025, improving from 48.7 in April. While the index continues to signal contraction for the eleventh consecutive month, analysts noted a slower pace of decline. This reflects a less severe drop in new orders and a moderate decrease in production volume. Meanwhile, employment grew at the fastest rate since April 2024.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate is falling after rebounding from the Moving Averages, with selling pressure intensifying. Today’s USDJPY forecast expects the pair to drop further towards the 142.05 level.

The Stochastic Oscillator analysis supports the likelihood of a bearish move: indicator values are bouncing off the descending resistance line.

A confident breakout and consolidation below the 143.25 support level would confirm the continuation of the downward movement.

Summary

The USDJPY rate is declining due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen, caused by global trade tensions, Trump’s tariff threats, and partially improved Japanese economic data. USDJPY technical analysis points to a continued downtrend, with a likely move towards the 142.05 level.