Weekly technical analysis and forecast (10–14 November 2025)

This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (10–14 November 2025)

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1430, 1.1388. Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1660
• USDJPY: Support: 152.20, 149.90. Resistance: 154.40, 157.50
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.2870, 1.2777. Resistance: 1.3115, 1.3500
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6450, 0.6422. Resistance: 0.6520, 0.6560
• USDCAD: Support: 1.4070, 1.4020. Resistance: 1.4135, 1.4160
• Gold: Support: 3880, 3660. Resistance: 4020, 4160
• Brent: Support: 63.00, 61.80. Resistance: 64.50, 69.10

EURUSD forecast

This week, the EURUSD pair remains under pressure from fundamental factors supporting the dollar:

• Federal Reserve monetary policy

Recent comments from Fed officials remain moderately hawkish: the regulator allows for rates to stay high longer than the market previously expected. This supports US bond yields and strengthens the USD.

• The ECB remains cautious

The European regulator signals risks of slowing economic activity. The probability of the ECB easing policy sooner remains higher than that of the Fed. The monetary policy differential pressures the euro.

• European macroeconomic data

Weak dynamics in industrial production and business activity in the eurozone continue to limit demand for the EUR.

• Geopolitical backdrop

Rising uncertainty in the global economy strengthens the dollar as a safe-haven asset, especially amid weakening demand for risk assets.

Collectively, the fundamental backdrop increases the likelihood of a bearish wave structure unfolding for the euro.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair has completed the first part of a downward wave and reached the 1.1468 support level. This week, a corrective phase is expected. The nearest structure suggests a rise to 1.1550 (a local correction), followed by a decline to 1.1430 (resumption of pressure). A consolidation zone (pivot point) of the current downward wave is forming around 1.1484. The market is expected to complete building the range and break lower, confirming the start of the third wave’s expansion down. After breaking below the range, the third downward wave is anticipated to develop with an initial target at 1.1240. After this target is reached, the market may correct upwards to retest the 1.1484 level from below.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (baseline) scenario: the first half of the third wave has completed at 1.1468. The start of the second half towards 1.1240 is expected.

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a breakout above the 1.1550 level would open the door for a rise to 1.1660, which would signal a possible end to the current corrective phase.

USDJPY forecast

The USDJPY pair continues to trade in a high-volatility zone driven by three factors:

• The US-Japan interest-rate differential remains the key driver. The Fed maintains a higher-for-longer stance, while the BoJ remains ultra-cautious in normalising policy. Current rate expectations keep the dollar on the rise
• The market is actively assessing the likelihood of currency interventions by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, as the area above 154.00 is traditionally considered sensitive for the Japanese authorities. Verbal interventions are possible, especially if the pair’s rise accelerates
• US Treasury yield dynamics directly influence USDJPY’s medium-term path. Yields have stabilised but remain relatively high, providing a baseline tailwind for the dollar

Overall, the fundamental environment is moderately bullish; however, in the short term, the market is vulnerable to a correction due to local overbought conditions and the strong resistance zone at 154.40–154.50.

USDJPY technical analysis

The market has reached the local target within the third upward wave – 154.40. A broad consolidation zone is forming below this level, confirming waning momentum.

This week is expected to see:

• a downside breakout from the range and development of a corrective structure to 152.20 (first target support level)
• the correction may extend to 149.90, where the key boundary of the fourth wave of a higher scale lies

After the correction completes, the market retains the potential to build the next impulse higher. The likelihood of a fifth wave forming suggests a target level of 158.00 – the local estimated target for the third wave on the higher timeframe.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish (baseline) scenario: a breakout and consolidation above 154.40 would open the door for a continued upward movement.

• local target: 157.50 (local within the structure)
• main target: 158.00 (primary target of the third upward wave)
• further outlook: 159.62 (extension of the third wave)

Bearish (alternative) scenario: a rebound from the 154.40 level, followed by an impulsive break from the range downwards, would open a corrective path.

Correction targets:

• 152.20 (base target)
• 149.90 (extended target, the fourth-wave zone)

This scenario remains valid while the market trades below 154.50.

GBPUSD forecast

The market remains highly sensitive to USD dynamics ahead of the December Fed meeting. The latest US labour-market data confirmed cooling but still leaves room for another bout of hawkish rhetoric from the regulator with an overheated services sector. Additional pressure on the pound comes from weak UK consumer activity and housing data, as well as the persistent rate differential. The Bank of England maintains a cautious tone, indicating the need to keep rates elevated, while effectively acknowledging weakening economic momentum. The external backdrop remains moderately negative for the GBP, increasing the probability of a continued medium-term bearish structure.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the GBPUSD pair has completed another downward move, reaching 1.3010. The market is now shifting to a narrow consolidation phase around 1.3115, a key potential pivot point likely to set the wave’s direction in the current structure. If the pivot point forms in this zone, the market gains a technical basis for continued downside. A further impulse down to 1.2777 is expected, with potential for a deeper move into the 1.2500 area, which corresponds to the estimated local target of the third wave.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (baseline) scenario: forming and holding a consolidation range below 1.3115 triggers the third downward wave.

• nearest target: 1.2777
• estimated local target: 1.2500

The structure fully fits within the development of the descending channel and remains the priority while the price stays below 1.3150.

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a sustained consolidation above 1.3150 would enable a recovery impulse.

• upside potential: 1.3500 (upper boundary of the descending channel, key liquidity zone).

This scenario is only possible with a sharp weakening of the US dollar or significant positive UK data.

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to a combination of factors:

• Australia’s labour market shows signs of cooling, reducing the likelihood of the RBA tightening
• Weaker Chinese demand for commodities limits AUD’s recovery potential, as the currency remains highly sensitive to China’s cycles
• The RBA – Fed rate differential remains in favour of the US dollar, supporting capital flows into the USD

Fed officials’ comments are expected this week and may increase volatility across commodity currencies. Fundamentally, the pair looks vulnerable, and the medium-term balance remains tilted towards downside pressure.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair completed a decline to 0.6495 and formed a corrective move up to 0.6515. The current structure is producing a precursor to the development of the third wave down. The coming week could see a decline to 0.6422, where a compact consolidation range is expected to form. This range is viewed as a pivot point structure that will set the impulse for further movement. If it breaks lower, the local target of the third wave will be projected at 0.6226. Thus, the market continues to operate within a medium-term downtrend, retaining potential to form a deep fifth wave towards 0.6160–0.6140 on a broader horizon.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (main) scenario: continued decline to 0.6422 (the main target for the coming week).

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a firm consolidation above 0.6560 would open upside potential towards 0.6620

USDCAD forecast

At the start of November, the USDCAD pair remains sensitive to the policy differential between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar receives modest support from sustained high export prices for oil; however, domestic labour and inflation data continue to show an economic cooldown, limiting room for a hawkish BoC.

The Fed, in turn, maintains cautious rhetoric: inflation trends are uneven, but the market continues to price in a gentle rate cut closer to Q1 2026. This gives the US dollar a short-term advantage and supports the bullish structure in the USDCAD pair.

Additional factors include:

• oil dynamics (high volatility limits CAD strength)
• overall demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty
• expectations for the US financial sector and major corporate earnings

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains moderately bullish for the USDCAD pair in the short term, with a deeper correction possible only after the local upside target is reached.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the USDCAD pair is developing a bullish wave structure. The market is confidently advancing within an impulse aimed at the estimated local target of 1.4160 (the top of the current third-wave structure). This week, the price is expected to reach the 1.4160 level, which is the local target zone for the ongoing bullish momentum. Subsequently, a corrective wave may start, with the first correction target at least at 1.4020. A deeper correction towards 1.3939 (testing from above, coinciding with the prior consolidation area and dynamic support) is possible. After the correction is complete, the fifth upward wave is likely to begin, with an estimated main target of 1.4333. The overall upward structure remains impulsive as long as the price trades above the 1.3939 area.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bullish (baseline) scenario: holding above 1.4020 confirms the bullish structure. After hitting current highs, the pair is expected to reach at least 1.4160. A pullback to 1.4020–1.3939 is viewed as a correction ahead of the fifth wave. After the correction, the price could rise towards 1.4333, the primary estimated target.

Bearish (alternative) scenario: in case of a sharp drop and a breakout below 1.4020 on rising volumes, the market may shift into an extended correction. In this case, the probability of a pullback to 1.3939 increases markedly. A breakout of the 1.3939 level would violate the impulsive structure and shift focus to deeper downside targets.

XAUUSD forecast

In early November, the gold market remains under mixed influences. On the one hand, safe-haven demand persists due to geopolitical risks and expectations of dovish tones from some Federal Reserve members. On the other hand, high real rates and a lack of clear signals of an imminent rate-cut cycle limit upside potential. Investors continue to reassess US monetary policy prospects amid restrained inflation data; however, the overall fundamental backdrop does not yet create conditions for a sustained breakout higher. Against this background, gold remains highly volatile, trading within a medium-term range.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD continues to form a consolidation range around 4,020. The intraday structure points to a likely final expansion of the range downwards to 3,880. This area is viewed as the key zone for completing the current corrective phase.

After testing the 3,880 level, prices are expected to return to 4,020 (retesting from below). The shape of this return move will be decisive for the next-stage scenario. In the broader picture, the probability of a downside breakout from the range and the development of the second half of the decline impulse towards 3,660 remains relevant. This decline is viewed as a correction of the prior rally. At the 3,660 level, additional support may be provided by the SMA50 (D1). After the corrective wave completes, the market may begin to form a new bullish wave with an initial target at 4,020 and then 4,560. This target is calculated within the continuation of the uptrend structure.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (baseline) scenario: a breakout and consolidation below 4,020 opened potential for a decline to 3,660 (corrective structure). From the 3,660 level, a reversal base is expected to form and a new bullish wave to begin.

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a firm consolidation above 4,020 would cancel the deeper-correction scenario and open potential for a rise to 4,400 and 4,560.

Brent forecast

The oil market remains strongly influenced by geopolitical factors that prevent a deeper correction. Key drivers of the week include:

• geopolitical risks

Middle East: tensions around Iran and Yemen are not easing. Security issues on sea routes periodically trigger spikes in freight rates, constraining physical oil supply.

Europe: the risk of supply disruptions persists due to political disagreements within the EU on energy strategy and sanctions policy.

Venezuela: the situation around production recovery remains unstable. The recent escalation around PDVSA and new US restrictions raise the risk of lower exports from the country.

• sanctions against Russian companies

Tighter restrictions on the tanker fleet and sanction-evasion schemes are increasing the shadow fleet and logistics costs.

In the physical market, available volumes of Russian oil are decreasing, which supports Brent prices.

• demand factors

China’s industrial production continues to recover after three weak months, which could provide a further boost to demand. In the US, API and EIA data indicate further declines in commercial inventories, also reinforcing the bullish backdrop.

• OPEC+

The likelihood of an unscheduled meeting remains elevated. Saudi Arabia and allies continue to maintain a strict stance on quota compliance, acting as a stabilising factor.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains moderately bullish, despite a local corrective wave on the charts.

Brent technical analysis

On the daily chart, Brent crude is forming a corrective wave towards 63.00. This week, prices are expected to complete this correction and begin to reverse upwards. Next, a new bullish wave is expected to develop towards 64.50, which is the nearest key resistance level. A breakout above 64.50 would trigger an acceleration phase, opening potential for a move to 69.10, the local estimated target of the current upward impulse. The main target of the entire bullish structure is 78.30.

Brent forecast scenarios

Bullish (baseline) scenario: given geopolitical tensions on several key fronts, the risk of supply disruptions, tighter sanctions against Russian companies, and declining US inventories, the market retains potential for an accelerated rally.

Upside targets:

• first target: 69.10
• second target: 72.10
• local target of the fifth leg: 75.20
• main target of the first upward wave: 78.30

Bearish (alternative, unlikely) scenario: a breakout below the 63.00 level could enable a deeper correction towards 61.80. Given the fundamental backdrop, such a decline may be purely short-term and used by the market to accumulate positions.

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