Weekly technical analysis and forecast (17–21 November 2025)

This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (17–21 November 2025)

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1555, 1.1470. Resistance: 1.1648, 1.1666
• USDJPY: Support: 154.40, 153.00. Resistance: 156.00, 156.56
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3150, 1.3000. Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3292
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6530, 0.6450. Resistance: 0.6580, 0.6620
• USDCAD: Support: 1.3939, 1.3880. Resistance: 1.4030, 1.4090
• Gold: Support: 4040, 3840. Resistance: 4242, 4285
• Brent: Support: 62.20, 60.80. Resistance: 69.10, 72.60

EURUSD forecast

The end of the US government shutdown was the week’s main event. A temporary government funding deal avoided a prolonged halt in federal agency operations, which supported the dollar and stabilised the bond market. However, the agreement is temporary, with funding only being extended until the end of January 2026. This means uncertainty remains, and the market is already pricing in the possibility that budget risks could return at the start of next year. Additionally, economists warn that even a short-term halt in government financing could cost the US economy up to 2% of GDP in Q4, considering delays in government contracts and reduced business activity in related sectors.

In the coming week, investors will focus on the release of delayed macroeconomic data (CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls) and comments from Fed officials. If the data confirms a slowdown, expectations for further monetary tightening may be revised, which would weaken the dollar. At the same time, the ECB maintains cautious rhetoric: while acknowledging the eurozone’s cooling economy, the regulator sees no grounds to change rates before the end of the year. This supports the yield gap in the dollar’s favour, limiting the euro’s recovery potential.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair completed a corrective move towards 1.1555 and formed a consolidation range around this level. Last week, the price broke above the range, allowing for the possibility of extending the corrective wave to 1.1648 (the upper boundary of the local descending channel). This week, the correction is expected to end and a new bearish impulse to begin, targeting 1.1468. A breakout below 1.1468 will open the potential for continuation of the third downward wave towards 1.1250, where the estimated local target lies.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (baseline) scenario: after the correction completes near 1.1648, downward momentum is expected to resume, with targets at 1.1468 and 1.1250.

Bullish (alternative) scenario: if the price confidently breaks and consolidates above 1.1648, a rise to 1.1666 and 1.1730 is possible; however, upside potential remains limited by the resistance zone.

USDJPY forecast

The market remains optimistic about the dollar amid persistently high US Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged until the end of the year. Additional support for the greenback comes from the temporary shutdown deal, which allows the government to function through the end of January but does not remove medium-term uncertainty. The Japanese yen, for its part, remains under pressure due to the yield differential and the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance, as it avoids aggressive monetary tightening steps.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the daily chart, the USDJPY pair was limited to a correction down to 152.82 and broke above the upper boundary of the consolidation range, opening the potential for the uptrend to continue towards 156.00 and 156.56. In the coming week, the pair is expected to reach these targets. After that, a corrective move towards 154.40 (testing from above) is possible. Subsequently, a new bullish impulse towards 157.27 is possible, with scope to extend to 158.00, the local estimated target of the current wave structure.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish (baseline) scenario: a confident breakout and consolidation above 154.40 opens the path to 156.00–156.56, followed by targets at 157.27 and 158.00.

Bearish (alternative) scenario: a sharp decline and breakout below 152.80, confirmed by volumes, could trigger a deeper correction towards 149.90 (the prior pivot point area).

GBPUSD forecast

Last week, the pound continued to trade under pressure following weak UK GDP data and a drop in business activity (PMIs), which fuelled expectations for earlier BoE policy easing. The market is pricing in the first rate cut as early as spring 2026. An additional headwind is weak consumer demand amid high household debt and ongoing declines in retail sales.

On the US side, the dollar is supported by resilient US economic data and rising Treasury yields. The temporary budget deal that averted a shutdown through the end of January only temporarily eased political tension and did not remove long-term debt risks.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains moderately bearish for the pound, with short-term corrective rebounds possible due to technical oversold conditions and a partial weakening of the dollar ahead of new US inflation data.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the GBPUSD pair completed a corrective rise to 1.3150. In the coming week, a compact consolidation range is expected to form around this level. An upward breakout could extend the corrective move to 1.3292 (testing from below). Subsequently, a decline is projected first to 1.3150 and then to 1.3000. The current range is viewed as a potential pivot point formation zone, from which the third downward wave may develop with a local target at 1.2828 and the potential to extend to 1.2580.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (main) scenario: development of the third downward wave with targets at 1.2828 and 1.2580.

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a sustained consolidation above 1.3150 would open the potential for a corrective rise to 1.3292 (upper boundary of the descending channel).

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to a combination of factors:

• Australia’s labour market shows signs of cooling, reducing the likelihood of the RBA tightening
• Declining Chinese demand for commodities limits AUD’s recovery potential, as the currency remains highly sensitive to China’s cycles
• The RBA – Fed rate differential remains in favour of the US dollar, supporting capital flows into the USD

Fed officials’ comments are expected this week and may increase volatility across commodity currencies. Fundamentally, the pair looks vulnerable, and the medium-term balance remains tilted towards downside pressure.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair declined to 0.6495 and formed a corrective move up to 0.6515. The current structure is producing a precursor to the development of the third downward wave. The coming week could see the pair decline to 0.6422, where a compact consolidation range is expected to form. This range is viewed as a pivot point structure that will set the impulse for further movement. If it breaks lower, the local target of the third wave will be projected at 0.6226. Thus, the market continues to operate within a medium-term downtrend, retaining potential to form a deep fifth wave towards 0.6160–0.6140 on a broader horizon.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (main) scenario: continued decline to 0.6422 (the main target for the coming week).

Bullish (alternative) scenario: a firm consolidation above 0.6560 would open upside potential towards 0.6620

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure, as oil prices continue to fluctuate within a wide range without a clear direction. Additional influence comes from the dollar market, with the USD supported by expectations for a longer period of elevated Fed rates. At the same time, market participants are watching Canadian inflation and labour market data, which may adjust expectations for future Bank of Canada actions.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the USDCAD pair hit the local target of the bullish wave at 1.4137 and began to develop a corrective structure. At the moment, the market has completed a decline to 1.4030 and is forming a consolidation range.

In the coming week, consolidation near current levels may persist. If the range breaks lower, the correction could continue to 1.3939. After it completes, upward momentum is expected to resume, aiming for 1.4160, the estimated target for the third wave. If the pair reaches this target, this may trigger a correction towards 1.3939 (testing from above), after which the market could gain potential to form the fifth upward wave towards 1.4333, the main estimated target of the medium-term upward cycle.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bullish (main) scenario: a breakout above the 1.4030 resistance level would open potential for further gains towards 1.4160 and then 1.4333.

Bearish (alternative) scenario: if the 1.4000 level breaks, confirmed by rising volumes, the market may develop a deeper correction towards 1.3939.

XAUUSD forecast

Gold continues to trade near yearly highs, remaining sensitive to US Treasury yield dynamics and expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q1 2026. Amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a moderately weaker dollar, gold remains in demand as a safe-haven asset. Additional support comes from central bank purchases and sustained investor interest in physical gold.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 4,088 and, breaking upwards, achieved the local upside target at 4,242. This week, a corrective move lower is expected, with prices testing 4,088 from above. Subsequently, growth could resume towards 4,285. Overall, a broad consolidation range is forming with a central axis at 4,088. After the local upside target is reached, prices could return to the range and retest the lower boundary.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bullish (main) scenario: the breakout above 4,088 opened the potential for further growth towards 4,242 and 4,285.

Bearish (alternative) scenario: a firm consolidation below 4,030 would activate a decline to 3,840 and 3,660.

Brent forecast

The oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. Tensions in Europe and the Middle East, instability in Venezuela, and expanded sanctions against Russian companies are creating the conditions for volatility and potential price increases. An additional supportive factor is expectations for OPEC+ production cuts amid sustained Asian demand.

Brent technical analysis

On the daily chart, Brent crude completed a corrective wave down to 62.20. In the coming week, an upward wave could start, with an initial target at 65.65. A breakout above this level will open the potential for a rise to 69.10, followed by further movement to 76.06. The main target of the current structure, as the fifth wave, is projected at 78.30.

Brent forecast scenarios

Bullish (main) scenario: a sharp price increase is possible given the combination of geopolitical factors, including Middle East flare-ups, sanction pressures, and instability in Venezuela.

Potential upside targets:

• first target: 69.10
• second target: 72.10
• local target of the fifth leg: 76.06
• main target of the first upward wave: 78.30

Bearish (alternative, less likely) scenario: a breakout below 62.00 may extend the correction to 60.80; however, the medium-term bullish structure would remain intact.

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