The Australian Dollar is quietly growing. Overview for 15.02.2017

With the fundamental background being neutral on Wednesday morning, the AUD/USD pair is moving to the upside.

The local ascending impulse in the AUD/USD pair continues despite the NAB’s cautious opinion on the rates and yesterday’s aggressive comments from the USA Fed. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7476.

According to the NAB’s opinion, they expect the RBA to decrease the interest rate in Australia from 1.5% to 1.25% by the mid fall of 2017. This forecast may be considered a bit conservative: earlier, the NAB predicted the rate to be revised twice this year, in summer and early fall by 50 bps in total.  

When it comes to the GDP growth, the NAB is rather optimistic. They suppose that quarterly reading will be average, but by the end of the third quarter the GDP might add 3% or even more. The annual average growth of the GDP this year is estimated at 2.3%.

Money inflow into the mining sector is still decreasing, but this process started a long time ago – earlier, Australia started diversifying the country’s economy in order to decrease its dependency on resources. Export of condensed natural gas remains a bit alarming, but overall export parameters are expected to be higher than average.

One of the major problems of the Australian economy still lies in the employment market and little dynamic potential of growth of population’s income.

RoboForex Analytical Department