The euro is on the edge of a cliff
24.12.2014
Yesterday evening a flurry of macroeconomic data was published, that "brought down" the Euro-currency. Today, the Catholic world is starting to celebrate Christmas - important publications will not come out until Monday next week, when investors' activity will be significantly reduced.
Thus, in the third quarter the US economy expanded more than could have been expected by the most optimistic forecast: GDP grew in July-September by 5.0% y/y against the growth of 4.6% in the second quarter. The current quarterly growth is the highest since the fall of 2003. The main contribution to GDP growth was made by consumers and investors. At the same time, industrial production rose in the third quarter by 2.7% y/y against the growth of 2.6% y/y in the previous quarter.
Judging by macro statistics, the US economy is strong enough in its growth, which is observed since the spring, and only gaining momentum. And it is - despite the fact that the Fed has stopped stimulation.
In addition, yesterday the world saw the statistics on orders for durable goods. In November, the indicator fell by 0.7% m/m to $ 242.28 billion. The average market forecast predicted a strengthening of 3%. Thus, November became the fourth consecutive month of reduction in the indicator, and it gives reason for concern. It may well be that economic growth in the US for the fourth quarter could be about half the level of the second and third quarters.
For now the euro/dollar will remain under fundamental pressure, although frankly, the market will be "thin" until the end of the year and may give the pair a chance to recover a little.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Thus, in the third quarter the US economy expanded more than could have been expected by the most optimistic forecast: GDP grew in July-September by 5.0% y/y against the growth of 4.6% in the second quarter. The current quarterly growth is the highest since the fall of 2003. The main contribution to GDP growth was made by consumers and investors. At the same time, industrial production rose in the third quarter by 2.7% y/y against the growth of 2.6% y/y in the previous quarter.
Judging by macro statistics, the US economy is strong enough in its growth, which is observed since the spring, and only gaining momentum. And it is - despite the fact that the Fed has stopped stimulation.
In addition, yesterday the world saw the statistics on orders for durable goods. In November, the indicator fell by 0.7% m/m to $ 242.28 billion. The average market forecast predicted a strengthening of 3%. Thus, November became the fourth consecutive month of reduction in the indicator, and it gives reason for concern. It may well be that economic growth in the US for the fourth quarter could be about half the level of the second and third quarters.
For now the euro/dollar will remain under fundamental pressure, although frankly, the market will be "thin" until the end of the year and may give the pair a chance to recover a little.
RoboForex Analytical Department
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.