The Aussie is falling. Overview for 27.01.2022

AUDUSD continues falling; the “greenback” remains strong.  

The Australian Dollar continues falling against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.7077.

The American currency remains strong after “hawkish” comments from the US Fed and that puts a lot of pressure on AUD. 

The statistics published by Australia weren’t impressive and couldn’t support the Aussie. For example, the preliminary Manufacturing PMI reading showed 55.3 points in January after being 57.7 points the month before. The Services PMI dropped to 45.0 points after showing 55.1 points in December. 

The NAB Business Confidence plummeted to -12 points in December after being 12 points in November. Possible reasons are Chinese-Australian relation concerns and Omikron-related risks. The MI Leading Index m/m remained at zero in November after being 0.2% m/m in the previous month.

Judging by the published reports, one may assume that the Reserve Bank of Australia could wait and not raise the benchmark rate in the nearest future. This though is confirmed by the latest surveys from Reuters: before that, financial markets were expecting the regulator to raise the rate in May, but now in November, at the earliest. According to CME, in November, the rate could go up by 15 basis points. 

However, during its next meeting on 1 February, the RBA might announce the closure of the bond purchasing programme. This news may support the Aussie.