EUR has recovered. Overview for 02.03.2023

EURUSD grew quite a bit overnight. The current quote is 1.0650.

The USD got a hard blow from the production statistics from February. The ISM PMI grew from 47.4 points to 47.7 points instead of 48.0 points. The index remains under the psychologically important level of 50.0 points marking the reversal from growth to falling. The detailed report shows that the Prices paid index grew to 51.3 points instead of 45 points from 44.5. This means prices are speeding up.

It turns out we are witnessing a new pro-inflation signal.

The inflation statistics from Germany and France gives the ECB more reasons for increasing the interest rate fast. Prices are getting more and more inflated in the EU.

Today take a look at the prelim CPI in EU for February. Previously, it reached 8.6% y/y. Forecasts suggest something between 8.3% and 8.7%. A decrease in inflation will be neutral for the EUR while an increase will support it.

Also, today we will see the minutes of the last ECB meeting and look for some indications of further activity around the interest rate.

The US will publish the weekly unemployment claims report.