EURUSD got back balance. Overview for 17.04.2023

EURUSD on Monday remains cautious after sky-rocketing and correcting earlier. The current quote is 1.0980.

The flow of statistics on Friday turned out, indeed, patchy. However, its components made the USD as relatively balanced as it can be. For example, retail sales in the US in March dropped 1% m/m instead of 0.4% forecast and after a preceding decline by 0.2% m/m. This is explicable: inflation can be felt in places, and consumers are careful. Industrial production volume in March grew 0.4% m/m instead of 0.3% m/m forecast. The capacity utilisation factor reached 79.8%, rising from 79.6%. All this might be a sign of demand expected in the future, and this is a good signal.

The prelim Michigan University CCI in April amounts to 63.5 points instead of 62.0 points forecast. This also supports the dollar.

As for the Fed that keeps pressing on the USD with expectations, things are not as clear as they could be. The market confidence in the upcoming pause in interest rate increases might be excessive.