USD’s crucial week. Overview for 18.03.2024

The main currency pair is consolidating on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0887.

The US dollar saw a noticeable increase previously because of the US statistics, which demonstrated the stability of the country’s economy. At the same time, there are weak spots in it, which suggests that the Federal Reserve will be able to keep the interest rate high for longer than expected. Moreover, the Fed might cut to minimum the number of decreases this year.

Industrial production in the US in February recovered, rising by 0.8% m/m. The growth can partially be explained by the revision of the January’s index, yet this does not make the indicator less positive.

Consumer sentiment in the US and inflation expectations in March have not changed practically. The prelim calculation of the PMI by the University of Michigan amounted to 76.5 points against the final calculation in February showing 76.9 points.

The yearly inflation expectation this year suggests the 3.0% level.

This week is critical for the USD because on 19-20 March the Fed will have a meeting. And though the time for changing the rate has not come yet, the regulator’s comments can provide a lot of important signals.