Apple sets a new revenue record – review of results and AAPL stock forecast

Apple ended Q4 2025 of its fiscal year with record revenue and profit, exceeding analyst expectations. Management presented an optimistic outlook for Q1 2026, while AAPL shares hit a new all-time high.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed Q4 2025 of its fiscal year with a strong set of results: revenue reached 102.5 billion USD (+8% y/y), and diluted EPS came in at 1.85 USD, up 13% year-on-year on a non-GAAP basis. Both figures were slightly above analyst expectations. This marked a record September quarter for revenue, earnings per share, and income from both iPhone and Services. iPhone sales totalled around 49 billion USD, supported by the launch of the iPhone 17 line-up, while Services revenue reached a record high of 28.8 billion USD.

Performance across regions was mixed: Apple achieved record results in the US, Europe and several Asian markets. In contrast, revenue in China declined by 4% due to supply delays and stronger competition – the only notable weakness in the report.

Management delivered an upbeat outlook for Q1 2026. CEO Tim Cook expects total revenue to grow by 10–12% y/y and anticipates double-digit iPhone sales growth as the full impact of the iPhone 17 launch is realised – significantly above the prior market consensus. The company also projects continued double-digit expansion in Services and is targeting the strongest holiday quarter in its history, both in terms of revenue and iPhone sales – effectively guiding investors towards another record-breaking December quarter.

Investor reaction to the results was positive. On the day following publication, AAPL shares opened more than 2% higher, driven by strong figures and optimistic guidance. However, some short-term traders took profits amid the initial rally, erasing early gains. Within six days, the uptrend resumed, and AAPL shares once again reached a new all-time high.

This article examines Apple Inc., provides a fundamental analysis of Apple’s financials and a technical analysis of Apple’s share price, forming the basis for the Apple Inc. stock forecast for 2025.

About Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. is a US company founded in 1976 by Steve Jobs, Stephen Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne. Initially, it focused on manufacturing personal computers, but later expanded its operations to become the leader in the consumer electronics industry. Apple is renowned for its innovative devices – the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods – and its unique ecosystem, which integrates these products into its existing services.

Apple went public on the NASDAQ on 12 December 1980 under the AAPL ticker symbol. The company raised approximately 100 million USD, marking it as one of the largest and most successful initial public offerings of its time.

Consistent investor demand drove up Apple’s share value, eventually limiting the number of participants who could afford them. As a result, the company has conducted four stock splits in its history, each time lowering the share value and increasing the number of shares. In 1980, there were approximately 4.6 million shares in circulation; by 2024, this figure had exceeded 15 billion.

In addition to investor demand, Apple generates market demand for its stock through share buybacks. This strategy enables the company to reduce the total number of outstanding shares, thereby increasing earnings per share for the remaining stock and making the securities more appealing to investors. Since Apple introduced its share buyback program in 2012, it has allocated approximately 700 billion USD to this initiative, making it one of the world’s leading companies in terms of buyback volume, surpassing major corporations across other sectors.

The stock buyback is financed through free cash flow and low-interest loans.

Apple Inc.’s main revenue streams

In 2025, the company’s revenue came from the following streams:

• iPhone: the primary source of income, generating about half of the company’s total revenue due to its popular smartphone models.
• iPad and Mac: earnings from tablet and computer sales for both personal and business use. Although their share of total revenue has declined, they remain a vital part of Apple’s business model.
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: revenue from sales of Apple Watch, AirPods, and other accessories, including MagSafe and apps for iPhone, Mac, and iPad.
• Services: a rapidly expanding area that includes subscriptions to Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, App Store, and other services. Services have become one of the company’s most profitable revenue streams.
• Financial services: Apple is constantly improving its financial products, such as the Apple Pay payment system and Apple Card credit cards, and actively expanded its offerings in this area in 2024.
• Products for businesses and corporate services: Apple offers a range of devices and services tailored for corporate clients, including businesses, educational institutions, and healthcare organisations.

Conclusion: based on the above, Apple generates revenue from manufacturing and selling hardware devices, as well as earning from digital service subscriptions and commissions on App Store transactions.

Apple Inc. Q4 2024 financial results

Apple reported strong financial results for Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year. Below are the key figures from the report:(https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 94.93 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 14.73 billion USD (–36%)
• Earnings per share: 0.97 USD (–34%)
• Operating profit: 29.59 billion USD (+9%)

Revenue by segment:

• iPhone: 46.22 billion USD (+5%)
• Mac: 7.74 billion USD (+2%)
• iPad: 6.95 billion USD (+8%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 9.04 billion USD (–3%)
• Services: 24.97 billion USD (+12%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 41.66 billion USD (+4%)
• Europe: 24.92 billion USD (+11%)
• Greater China: 15.03 billion USD (–1%)
• Japan: 5.92 billion USD (+8%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.38 billion USD (+16%)

Nearly all metrics, except for data from the Wearables, Home and Accessories segments, demonstrated growth. However, the company’s net profit still dropped by 36%. This decline was due to a 10.2 billion USD fine imposed by the European Union. Excluding this one-off payment, the net profit growth in Q4 2024 would have been 8%.

The company provided a conservative forecast for the next quarter. Revenue is expected to grow in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year, service income is anticipated to reach double-digit figures, and gross profit is forecast to be 46–47%, 1–2% higher than the previous quarter.

Apple Inc. Q1 2025 financial results

Apple released its Q1 2025 earnings report on 30 January 2025. The key report data is outlined below: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 124.30 billion USD (+4%)
• Net income: 36.33 billion USD (+7%)
• Earnings per share: 2.40 USD (+10%)
• Operating profit: 42.83 billion USD (+6%)

Revenue by segment:

• iPhone: 69.13 billion USD (–1%)
• Mac: 8.99 billion USD (+15%)
• iPad: 8.09 billion USD (+15%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 11.75 billion USD (–2%)
• Services: 26.34 billion USD (+14%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 52.44 billion USD (+4%)
• Europe: 33.86 billion USD (+11%)
• Greater China: 18.51 billion USD (–11%)
• Japan: 8.98 billion USD (+15%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 10.29 billion USD (+1%)

In its Q2 2025 forecast, Apple anticipates revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year. Given the Q2 2024 revenue of 95 billion USD, this suggests a range of approximately 98 to 100 billion USD. Services revenue was expected to grow in the low single digits.

Based on the report data, Apple delivered record financial results in Q1 2025 despite challenges in certain segments. Total revenue rose by 4% to an all-time high of 124.3 billion USD, while EPS increased by 10% to 2.40 USD, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The iPhone segment saw a modest decline in revenue, suggesting stagnant demand or a weaker-than-expected reception for the new iPhone 16 line-up. Mac sales grew, driven by new models featuring M4 chips. The iPad segment also expanded, benefitting from model upgrades. Conversely, the Wearables, Home and Accessories segment declined, possibly indicating market saturation or intensifying competition. Apple’s services, including the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and AppleCare, posted strong growth, highlighting the company’s strategic shift towards revenue diversification through subscriptions and services.

Sales in China fell sharply by 11%, reflecting difficulties in this market due to local competition and potential geopolitical factors. However, growth in other regions, including the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, helped offset some losses. Overall, Apple reaffirmed its resilience and growth potential despite various market challenges.

Apple Inc. Q2 2025 financial results

Apple released its Q2 2025 financial year report on 1 May 2025. Below are the key figures from the report compared with the same period in 2024: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 95.35 billion USD (+5%)
• Net income: 24.78 billion USD (+5%)
• Earnings per share: 1.65 USD (+8%)
• Operating profit: 29.58 billion USD (+6%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales Products: 68.71 billion USD (+3%)
• Net sales Services: 26.65 billion USD (+12%)
• iPhone: 46.84 billion USD (+2%)
• Mac: 7.95 billion USD (+7%)
• iPad: 6.40 billion USD (+15%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 7.52 billion USD (–5%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 40.31 billion USD (+8%)
• Europe: 24.45 billion USD (+1%)
• Greater China: 16.00 billion USD (–2%)
• Japan: 7.30 billion USD (+16%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.29 billion USD (+8%)

The Apple Inc. report for Q2 2025 of the financial year revealed a combination of solid growth and emerging challenges. Revenue reached 95.4 billion USD, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year, while earnings per share rose by 8% to 1.65 USD.

The services division performed particularly well, achieving record figures. Revenue amounted to 26.65 billion USD, up 12% year-on-year, underscoring Apple’s successful strategic shift towards stable, recurring income streams. As of May 2025, the number of paid subscriptions exceeded 1 billion. iPhone sales also demonstrated resilience, increasing by 2% to 46.84 billion USD despite a 2% decline in sales in China, offset by growth in the Americas and Japan.

Nevertheless, the company encountered several notable challenges. First, the potential imposition of new tariffs in the US, particularly on products assembled in China, could significantly impact the results for Q3 2025 of the financial year. Apple estimates that if the proposed package of tariff measures within the revised US trade policy is implemented, the company’s total costs could reach 900 million USD as early as the June quarter. These expenses are related to the rising costs of components manufactured or assembled in China, including key device categories such as the iPhone, MacBook, and accessories. This increase in expenses could reduce margins and affect retail prices, potentially impacting demand. Apple’s management has openly expressed concern, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in US-China trade relations. The company is accelerating the reorganisation of its supply chain, including shifting iPhone assembly for the US market to India, though this transition requires time and investment.

Secondly, the ongoing antitrust investigation and legal proceedings concerning the App Store’s structure and terms for third-party developers could potentially affect the services business, as the App Store is a key component of this rapidly growing revenue category.

Thirdly, Apple is experiencing delays in launching the updated version of its voice assistant Siri, which was highly anticipated in the context of generative AI development. These difficulties created uncertainty around the company’s upcoming innovations in user experience and artificial intelligence.

Looking ahead, Apple forecast revenue growth for Q3 2025 to be in the low- to mid- single-digit range, with an expected gross margin between 45.5% and 46.5%. This projection reflected the company’s cautious optimism amid market pressure and internal challenges.

A positive development for Apple shareholders was the announcement of a substantial share buyback program worth 110 billion USD, alongside a 4% increase in quarterly dividends to 0.26 USD per share.

Apple Inc. Q3 2025 financial results

Apple released its report for Q3 of the 2025 financial year on 31 July 2025. Below are the key figures compared to the same period in 2024: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 94.03 billion USD (+10%)
• Net income: 23.43 billion USD (+10%)
• Earnings per share: 1.57 USD (+12%)
• Operating profit: 28.20 billion USD (+11%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales Products: 66.61 billion USD (+8%)
• Net sales Services: 27.42 billion USD (+13%)
• iPhone: 44.58 billion USD (+13%)
• Mac: 8.05 billion USD (+15%)
• iPad: 6.58 billion USD (–8%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 7.40 billion USD (–8%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 41.20 billion USD (+9%)
• Europe: 24.01 billion USD (+10%)
• Greater China: 15.37 billion USD (+4%)
• Japan: 5.78 billion USD (+13%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.67 billion USD (+20%)

Apple’s Q3 2025 financial report set a record for this period. Revenue rose to 94 billion USD, up 10% year-on-year and exceeding consensus expectations. Net income reached 23.4 billion USD, while earnings per share grew 12% year-on-year to 1.57 USD. iPhone sales increased by 13% to 44.6 billion USD, with services achieving an all-time high of 27.4 billion USD.

Apple management issued an optimistic outlook for the next reporting period. For Q4 2025, total revenue growth was projected to be in the mid- to high-single-digit range compared with the previous year. The gross margin was expected to remain within the 46–47% range, despite the company setting aside nearly 1.1 billion USD for new tariffs.

Apple Inc. Q4 2025 financial results

On 30 October 2025, Apple released its earnings report for Q4 of fiscal year 2025. The key figures compared with the same period of fiscal 2024 are as follows:

• Revenue: 102.47 billion USD (+8%)
• Net income: 27.47 billion USD (+10%)*
• Earnings per share (EPS): 1.85 USD (+13%)*
• Operating profit: 32.43 billion USD (+10%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 73.72 billion USD (+5%)
• Net sales – Services: 28.75 billion USD (+15%)
• iPhone: 49.03 billion USD (+6%)
• Mac: 8.73 billion USD (+13%)
• iPad: 6.95 billion USD (0%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 9.01 billion USD (0%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 44.19 billion USD (+6%)
• Europe: 28.70 billion USD (+15%)
• Greater China: 14.49 billion USD (−4%)
• Japan: 6.64 billion USD (+12%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 8.44 billion USD (+14%)

*Growth in net income and EPS is calculated on a non-GAAP basis, with 2024 adjusted for the one-off EC tax penalty.

Apple closed fiscal Q4 2025 with a robust quarter: revenue rose 8% year-on-year, and adjusted EPS increased 13% year-on-year (excluding the one-off EC tax charge).

This was a record September quarter for revenue, iPhone sales, and earnings per share – effectively a successful finish to a record-breaking year, with annual revenue of around 416 billion USD and double-digit EPS growth. Gross margin rose to 47.2%, at the upper end of guidance, showing that the company not only returned to growth but also strengthened profitability despite tariff pressures and increasing investment costs.

Within the quarter, performance was also well balanced. iPhone revenue reached around 49 billion USD, showing solid growth following the launch of the iPhone 17 line-up – even though only a week of sales was included in the reporting period.

Mac revenue came in at 8.7 billion USD, delivering double-digit growth driven by the rollout of M5-based models. In contrast, iPad remained flat.

The main growth driver was the Services segment, with revenue reaching a record 28.8 billion USD, up about 15% year-on-year. On a full-year basis, Services revenue approached 110 billion USD and now contributes a disproportionately large share of profit, thanks to margins above 70%.

Geographically, China remained the weak spot, with regional revenue down roughly 4% amid tougher competition from local brands and temporary supply constraints.

Meanwhile, sales in several emerging markets – including India – continued to grow rapidly, and the active device base has reached new highs across all categories, underscoring the strength of Apple’s ecosystem.

Key developments during the quarter included the launch of the iPhone 17 line-up, new MacBook Pro and iPad Pro models powered by M5 chips, and updates to the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro 3. Together, these products form Apple’s strongest line-up for the holiday season in recent years and are already driving accelerating sales of iPhones and Macs.

In fiscal Q4 2025, capital expenditure rose to 12.7 billion USD, up 35% year-on-year, largely due to spending on AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centres. While competitors are investing far more aggressively, Apple remains relatively disciplined.

Management openly noted that capital expenditures will continue to rise due to AI initiatives and that it is preparing to roll out an enhanced Siri and other AI-powered features in 2026. Financially, this poses no challenge: even with an annual capex of around 14 billion USD or higher in fiscal 2026, Apple maintains a vast liquidity buffer and strong free cash flow, meaning the risk of balance-sheet strain remains minimal.

The main question lies in how quickly these investments will begin to generate new service revenues and monetisable features.

Management also provided an aggressive outlook for the next quarter (Q1 2026 of the fiscal year).

CEO Tim Cook expects total revenue to grow 10–12% year-on-year and the iPhone to post double-digit sales growth, significantly above pre-report consensus. He also guided for a gross margin in the 47–48% range, at or above the current quarter’s level.

Management further expects China to return to growth in Q1 and Services to maintain double-digit expansion.

Fundamental analysis of Apple Inc.

Below is the fundamental analysis of AAPL based on the results for fiscal Q4 2025:

• Liquidity and access to funding: at the end of fiscal Q4 2025, Apple held approximately 35.9 billion USD in cash and 96.5 billion USD in marketable securities, for a total of 132.4 billion USD in liquid assets.

Current assets stood at 148.0 billion USD, and current liabilities at 165.6 billion USD, resulting in a current ratio of about 0.9×. However, most liabilities consist of accounts payable, deferred revenue, and short-term debt, all of which are comfortably covered by operating cash flow or can be refinanced if necessary.

Management emphasises that the company’s cash, investments, and access to capital markets are more than sufficient to fund all corporate needs – including share buybacks and dividends – for at least the coming year. Apple ended the quarter with record net income of 27.5 billion USD on revenue of 102.5 billion USD, confirming a strong cash generation capacity.

• Debt and leverage: Apple’s interest-bearing debt totals around 99.3 billion USD (including 91.3 billion USD in bonds and 8.0 billion USD in commercial paper). With 132.4 billion USD in liquid assets, the company maintains a net cash position of roughly +33 billion USD, meaning it holds more cash than debt.

Shareholders’ equity amounts to 73.7 billion USD, and total assets stand at 359.2 billion USD, reflecting a low level of leverage.

Over the next 12 months, Apple faces maturities of around 12.4 billion USD in bonds, 8.0 billion USD in commercial paper, and 2.6 billion USD in interest payments – all comfortably covered by annual cash flow.

• Cash flow and dividends: for fiscal 2025, Apple generated 111.5 billion USD in operating cash flow and spent 12.7 billion USD on capital expenditures, leaving 98.8 billion USD in free cash flow (FCF).

Of this amount, 15.4 billion USD was allocated to dividends and 89.3 billion USD to share repurchases. The total shareholder return reached 104.7 billion USD, with FCF covering dividends more than six times over and nearly fully funding buybacks.

Apple’s cash balance even increased over the year, underscoring the company’s ability to return capital to shareholders without weakening its financial position.

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis of AAPL

As of the end of fiscal 2025, Apple remains one of the most financially secure companies in the world. Its business continues to deliver exceptional profitability and a stable cash flow, providing a significant buffer even in the event of a potential market downturn. The balance sheet retains a large volume of liquid assets exceeding total debt – meaning Apple still holds a net cash position, despite extensive share buybacks and dividend payouts.

From a financial stability perspective, the company has no material vulnerabilities: leverage is minimal, borrowing costs remain low, and operations generate ample cash to fund investment and capital return programs without compromising balance-sheet strength. The only potential risks lie outside the financial domain – namely, regulatory pressure (antitrust scrutiny in the US and EU), geopolitical exposure (due to high manufacturing concentration in China), and the structural slowdown in iPhone market growth.

Expert forecasts for Apple Inc. shares in 2025

• Barchart: 23 out of 41 analysts rated Apple shares as a Strong Buy, 2 as a Moderate Buy, 14 as Hold, 1 as Sell, and 1 as a Strong Sell. The upper-end forecast is 345 USD, while the lower-end forecast is 225 USD.
• MarketBeat: 25 out of 37 analysts assigned the stock a Buy rating, 11 recommended Hold, and 1 advised Sell. The upper-end forecast is 345 USD, and the lower-end forecast is 170 USD.
• TipRanks: 21 out of 35 analysts rated the shares as Buy, 12 as Hold, and 2 as Sell. The top-end forecast is 345 USD, while the lower-end forecast is 225 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 8 out of 32 professionals rated Apple shares as a Strong Buy, 9 as a Buy, 9 as Hold, and 3 as Sell. The upper-end forecast is 325 USD, with the lower-end forecast at 160 USD.

Technical analysis and 2025 forecast for Apple Inc. stock

On the weekly timeframe, Apple shares are trading within an upward channel and have reached its upper boundary, which acts as resistance. Tim Cook’s visit to the White House in August 2025 had a positive impact on both AAPL’s share price and the company’s financial performance. As a result, AAPL shares rose by around 35% between August and November, with no significant corrections. The record quarter, optimistic guidance for the next period, and the launch of new products ahead of the holiday season all create conditions for further upside in AAPL stock. Based on the current performance of Apple shares, the potential scenarios for AAPL price movement in 2025 are as follows:

The base-case forecast for AAPL stock assumes a breakout above the channel line, potentially lifting the price by the height of the channel to around 370 USD. This movement may be supported by improving market sentiment following the end of the US government shutdown and the resumption of federal employee salaries, which could stimulate consumer spending – including purchases of Apple products.

The alternative forecast for AAPL shares suggests a correction towards the nearest support level at 260 USD. A rebound from this level would signal the resumption of upward movement towards the channel’s upper boundary, and, in the event of a breakout, to the next target at 370 USD.

100 billion USD investment in the US and reduced tariff risks

On 6 August, Apple, together with the US presidential administration, announced a new USD 100 billion investment package in the US, bringing the total plan to USD 600 billion over the next four years. The company launched the American Manufacturing Program to increase the production of components for iPhones and other devices in the US. It named initial partners including Corning (NYSE: GLW), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN), Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), and others. Apple also revealed plans to expand server manufacturing in Houston and increase data centre capacity for Apple Intelligence. Around 20,000 additional employees are expected to be hired in the US, as officially confirmed in Apple’s press release and endorsed by the White House.

For Apple, these announced measures imply a reduction in potential costs associated with import tariffs, which could otherwise increase production expenses and lead to higher iPhone prices if key components were manufactured outside the US. By shifting part of the manufacturing to American facilities and signing long-term contracts with local suppliers, the company reduces exposure to adverse tariff effects and enhances the resilience of its supply chain.

From a strategic development perspective, deploying Apple Intelligence on local servers and through domestic partners accelerates product time-to-market, which is critical for expanding the services segment and improving user retention rates. Additionally, substantial capital investments and demonstrating a willingness to collaborate with federal and regional authorities increase the likelihood of receiving subsidies and tax incentives under the CHIPS Act and similar government initiatives.

The market viewed these steps as a factor that reduces regulatory and geopolitical risks and acts as a driver of medium-term margin growth. On the day of the announcement, Apple shares rose approximately 5% and continued to climb in subsequent trading sessions, reflecting investor expectations for accelerated localisation of production and strengthened long-term competitiveness.

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