Apple shares at record highs – is further upside likely?

A strong Apple report, along with a 22% year-on-year increase in iPhone sales, supported the stock, while a new 100 billion USD share buyback further enhanced the company’s investment appeal.

The primary scenario suggests growth in AAPL towards 377 USD, although a short-term correction remains possible amid overbought conditions.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) released its Q2 2026 financial results, delivering a strong report and setting a new record for the March quarter. Revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to 111.18 billion USD, while net income totalled 29.58 billion USD. Earnings per share rose by 22% to 2.01 USD. The results exceeded market expectations, as analysts had forecast revenue of approximately 109.5 billion USD and EPS of 1.95 USD.

The primary growth driver once again was the iPhone segment. Revenue from iPhone sales increased by 22% year-on-year to 56.99 billion USD, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. Services also reached a new historical high, with revenue rising by 16% year-on-year to 30.98 billion USD.

It is also important to highlight the recovery in growth across all key product categories. Mac revenue increased to 8.40 billion USD, iPad revenue rose to 6.91 billion USD, and Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue reached 7.90 billion USD. Regionally, Greater China delivered particularly strong performance, with revenue growing by 28% year-on-year to 20.50 billion USD. For Apple, this is a significant signal, as the Chinese market has been one of the company’s most challenging regions in recent years.

Investors responded positively to the report. Apple shares opened 2.7% higher and continued to rise during the session. The rally was supported by the earnings beat, record iPhone revenue, a new Services high, an increase in the dividend to 0.27 USD per share, and the announcement of a new 100 billion USD share buyback program.

For Q3 of the 2026 financial year, Apple forecasts revenue growth of 14–17% year-on-year and a gross margin in the range of 47.5–48.5%. This guidance indicates sustained strong demand, although rising memory costs and supply constraints remain the primary risks to margins.

This article examines Apple Inc., provides a fundamental analysis of Apple based on its financial results, and presents a technical analysis of Apple stock, forming the basis for the forecast for Apple shares in 2026.

About Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. is a US company founded in 1976 by Steve Jobs, Stephen Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne. Initially, it focused on manufacturing personal computers but later expanded its operations to become the leader in the consumer electronics industry. Apple is renowned for its innovative devices – the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods – and its unique ecosystem, which integrates these products into its existing services.

Apple went public on the NASDAQ on 12 December 1980 under the AAPL ticker symbol. The company raised approximately 100 million USD, marking it as one of the largest and most successful initial public offerings of its time.

Consistent investor demand drove up Apple’s share value, eventually limiting the number of participants who could afford them. As a result, the company has conducted four stock splits in its history, each time lowering the share value and increasing the number of shares. In 1980, there were approximately 4.6 million shares in circulation; by 2024, this figure had exceeded 15 billion.

In addition to investor demand, Apple generates market demand for its stock through share buybacks. This strategy enables the company to reduce the total number of outstanding shares, thereby increasing earnings per share for the remaining stock and making the securities more appealing to investors. Since Apple introduced its share buyback program in 2012, it has allocated approximately 700 billion USD to this initiative, making it one of the world’s leading companies in terms of buyback volume, surpassing major corporations across other sectors.

The stock buyback is financed through free cash flow and low-interest loans.

Apple Inc.’s main revenue streams

In 2025, the company’s revenue came from the following streams:

• iPhone: the primary source of income, generating about half of the company’s total revenue due to its popular smartphone models.
• iPad and Mac: earnings from tablet and computer sales for both personal and business use. Although their share of total revenue has declined, they remain a vital part of Apple’s business model.
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: revenue from sales of Apple Watch, AirPods, and other accessories, including MagSafe and apps for iPhone, Mac, and iPad.
• Services: a rapidly expanding area that includes subscriptions to Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, App Store, and other services. Services have become one of the company’s most profitable revenue streams.
• Financial services: Apple continues to enhance its financial products, including the Apple Pay payment system and the Apple Card, and expanded its presence in this segment in 2024.
• Products for businesses and corporate services: Apple offers a range of devices and services tailored for corporate clients, including businesses, educational institutions, and healthcare organisations.

Conclusion: based on the above, Apple generates revenue from manufacturing and selling hardware devices, as well as earning from digital service subscriptions and commissions on App Store transactions.

Apple Inc. Q4 2024 financial results

Apple reported strong Q4 2024 financial results. Below are the key figures from the report:(https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 94.93 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 14.73 billion USD (–36%)
• Earnings per share: 0.97 USD (–34%)
• Operating profit: 29.59 billion USD (+9%)

Revenue by segment:

• iPhone: 46.22 billion USD (+5%)
• Mac: 7.74 billion USD (+2%)
• iPad: 6.95 billion USD (+8%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 9.04 billion USD (–3%)
• Services: 24.97 billion USD (+12%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 41.66 billion USD (+4%)
• Europe: 24.92 billion USD (+11%)
• Greater China: 15.03 billion USD (–1%)
• Japan: 5.92 billion USD (+8%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.38 billion USD (+16%)

Nearly all metrics, except results from the Wearables, Home and Accessories segments, demonstrated growth. However, the company’s net profit still dropped by 36%. This decline was due to a 10.2 billion USD fine imposed by the European Union. Excluding this one-off payment, the net profit growth in Q4 2024 would have been 8%.

The company provided a conservative forecast for the next quarter. Revenue is expected to grow in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year, service income is anticipated to reach double-digit figures, and gross profit is forecast to be 46–47%, 1–2% higher than the previous quarter.

Apple Inc. Q1 2025 financial results

Apple released its Q1 2025 financial results on 30 January 2025. The key report data is outlined below: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 124.30 billion USD (+4%)
• Net income: 36.33 billion USD (+7%)
• Earnings per share: 2.40 USD (+10%)
• Operating profit: 42.83 billion USD (+6%)

Revenue by segment:

• iPhone: 69.13 billion USD (–1%)
• Mac: 8.99 billion USD (+15%)
• iPad: 8.09 billion USD (+15%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 11.75 billion USD (–2%)
• Services: 26.34 billion USD (+14%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 52.44 billion USD (+4%)
• Europe: 33.86 billion USD (+11%)
• Greater China: 18.51 billion USD (–11%)
• Japan: 8.98 billion USD (+15%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 10.29 billion USD (+1%)

In its Q2 2025 forecast, Apple anticipates revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year. Given the Q2 2024 revenue of 95 billion USD, this suggests a range of approximately 98 to 100 billion USD. Services revenue was expected to grow in the low single digits.

Based on the report data, Apple delivered record financial results in Q1 2025 despite challenges in certain segments. Total revenue rose by 4% to an all-time high of 124.3 billion USD, while EPS increased by 10% to 2.40 USD, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The iPhone segment saw a modest decline in revenue, suggesting stagnant demand or a weaker-than-expected reception for the new iPhone 16 line-up. Mac sales grew, driven by new models featuring M4 chips. The iPad segment also expanded, benefiting from model upgrades. Conversely, the Wearables, Home and Accessories segment declined, possibly indicating market saturation or intensifying competition. Apple’s services, including the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and AppleCare, posted strong growth, highlighting the company’s strategic shift towards diversifying revenue through subscriptions and services.

Sales in China fell sharply by 11%, reflecting challenges in this market due to local competition and potential geopolitical factors. However, growth in other regions, including the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, helped offset some of the losses. Overall, Apple reaffirmed its resilience and growth potential despite various market challenges.

Apple Inc. Q2 2025 financial results

Apple released its Q2 2025 financial results on 1 May 2025. Below are the key figures from the report compared with the same period in 2024: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 95.35 billion USD (+5%)
• Net income: 24.78 billion USD (+5%)
• Earnings per share: 1.65 USD (+8%)
• Operating profit: 29.58 billion USD (+6%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 68.71 billion USD (+3%)
• Net sales – Services: 26.65 billion USD (+12%)
• iPhone: 46.84 billion USD (+2%)
• Mac: 7.95 billion USD (+7%)
• iPad: 6.40 billion USD (+15%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 7.52 billion USD (–5%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 40.31 billion USD (+8%)
• Europe: 24.45 billion USD (+1%)
• Greater China: 16.00 billion USD (–2%)
• Japan: 7.30 billion USD (+16%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.29 billion USD (+8%)

Apple Inc.’s Q2 2025 report for the financial year revealed a combination of solid growth and emerging challenges. Revenue reached 95.4 billion USD, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year, while earnings per share rose by 8% to 1.65 USD.

The services division performed particularly well, achieving record figures. Revenue amounted to 26.65 billion USD, up 12% year-on-year, underscoring Apple’s successful strategic shift towards stable, recurring income streams. As of May 2025, the number of paid subscriptions exceeded 1 billion. iPhone sales also demonstrated resilience, increasing by 2% to 46.84 billion USD despite a 2% decline in sales in China, offset by growth in the Americas and Japan.

Nevertheless, the company encountered several notable challenges. First, the potential imposition of new tariffs in the US, particularly on products assembled in China, could significantly impact the Q3 2025 results of the financial year. Apple estimates that if the proposed package of tariff measures within the revised US trade policy is implemented, the company’s total costs could reach 900 million USD as early as the June quarter. These expenses are related to the rising costs of components manufactured or assembled in China, including key device categories such as the iPhone, MacBook, and accessories. This increase in expenses could reduce margins and affect retail prices, potentially impacting demand. Apple’s management has openly expressed concern, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in US-China trade relations. The company is accelerating the reorganisation of its supply chain, including shifting iPhone assembly for the US market to India, though this transition requires time and investment.

Secondly, the ongoing antitrust investigation and legal proceedings concerning the App Store’s structure and terms for third-party developers could potentially affect the services business, as the App Store is a key component of this rapidly growing revenue category.

Thirdly, Apple is experiencing delays in launching the updated version of its voice assistant Siri, which was highly anticipated in the context of generative AI development. These difficulties created uncertainty around the company’s upcoming innovations in user experience and artificial intelligence.

Looking ahead, Apple forecast Q3 2025 revenue growth in the low- to mid- single-digit range, with an expected gross margin between 45.5% and 46.5%. This projection reflected the company’s cautious optimism amid market pressure and internal challenges.

A positive development for Apple shareholders was the announcement of a substantial share buyback program worth 110 billion USD, alongside a 4% increase in quarterly dividends to 0.26 USD per share.

Apple Inc. Q3 2025 financial results

Apple released its Q3 2025 financial results on 31 July 2025. Below are the key figures compared to the same period in 2024: (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx):

• Revenue: 94.03 billion USD (+10%)
• Net income: 23.43 billion USD (+10%)
• Earnings per share: 1.57 USD (+12%)
• Operating profit: 28.20 billion USD (+11%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 66.61 billion USD (+8%)
• Net sales – Services: 27.42 billion USD (+13%)
• iPhone: 44.58 billion USD (+13%)
• Mac: 8.05 billion USD (+15%)
• iPad: 6.58 billion USD (–8%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 7.40 billion USD (–8%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 41.20 billion USD (+9%)
• Europe: 24.01 billion USD (+10%)
• Greater China: 15.37 billion USD (+4%)
• Japan: 5.78 billion USD (+13%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 7.67 billion USD (+20%)

Apple’s Q3 2025 financial report set a record for this period. Revenue rose to 94 billion USD, up 10% year-on-year and exceeding consensus expectations. Net income reached 23.4 billion USD, while earnings per share grew 12% year-on-year to 1.57 USD. iPhone sales increased by 13% to 44.6 billion USD, with services reaching an all-time high of 27.4 billion USD.

Apple management issued an optimistic outlook for the next reporting period. For Q4 2025, total revenue growth was projected to be in the mid- to high-single-digit range compared with the previous year. The gross margin was expected to remain within the 46–47% range, despite the company setting aside nearly 1.1 billion USD for new tariffs.

Apple Inc. Q4 2025 financial results

On 30 October 2025, Apple released its Q4 2025 financial results. The key figures compared with the same period of fiscal 2024 are as follows:

• Revenue: 102.47 billion USD (+8%)
• Net income: 27.47 billion USD (+10%)*
• Earnings per share (EPS): 1.85 USD (+13%)*
• Operating profit: 32.43 billion USD (+10%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 73.72 billion USD (+5%)
• Net sales – Services: 28.75 billion USD (+15%)
• iPhone: 49.03 billion USD (+6%)
• Mac: 8.73 billion USD (+13%)
• iPad: 6.95 billion USD (0%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 9.01 billion USD (0%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 44.19 billion USD (+6%)
• Europe: 28.70 billion USD (+15%)
• Greater China: 14.49 billion USD (−4%)
• Japan: 6.64 billion USD (+12%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 8.44 billion USD (+14%)

*Growth in net income and EPS is calculated on a non-GAAP basis, with 2024 adjusted for the one-off EC tax penalty.

Apple closed fiscal Q4 2025 with a robust quarter: revenue rose 8% year-on-year, and adjusted EPS increased 13% year-on-year (excluding the one-off EC tax charge).

This was a record September quarter for revenue, iPhone sales, and earnings per share – effectively a successful finish to a record-breaking year, with annual revenue of around 416 billion USD and double-digit EPS growth. Gross margin rose to 47.2%, at the upper end of guidance, showing that the company not only returned to growth but also strengthened profitability despite tariff pressures and increasing investment costs.

Within the quarter, performance appeared well-balanced. iPhone revenue reached around 49 billion USD, showing solid growth following the launch of the iPhone 17 line-up – even though only a week of sales was included in the reporting period.

Mac revenue totalled 8.7 billion USD, delivering double-digit growth driven by the rollout of M5-based models. In contrast, iPad remained flat.

The main growth driver was Services, with revenue reaching a record 28.8 billion USD, up about 15% year-on-year. For the full year, Services revenue approached 110 billion USD and now contributes a disproportionately large share of profit, thanks to margins above 70%.

Geographically, China remained the weak spot, with regional revenue down roughly 4% amid tougher competition from local brands and temporary supply constraints.

Meanwhile, sales in several emerging markets – including India – continued to grow rapidly, and the active device base reached new highs across all categories, underscoring the strength of Apple’s ecosystem.

In fiscal Q4 2025, capital expenditure rose to 12.7 billion USD, up 35% year-on-year, largely due to spending on AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centres. While competitors were investing far more aggressively, Apple remained relatively disciplined. Management openly highlighted the significant increase in capital expenditure due to AI initiatives and outlined plans to launch a more advanced Siri and other AI-powered features in 2026. Financially, this poses no challenge: even with an annual capex of around 14 billion USD or higher in fiscal 2026, Apple maintains a vast liquidity buffer and strong free cash flow, meaning the risk of balance-sheet strain remains minimal.

The main risks lie in how quickly these investments will start generating new service revenues and monetisable features.

Management provided an aggressive outlook for the next quarter (Q1 of fiscal 2026), with CEO Tim Cook expecting total revenue to grow by 10–12% year-on-year, alongside double-digit iPhone sales growth, which is significantly above the pre-report consensus. He also guided for a gross margin in the 47–48% range, that is, at or above the current quarter’s level. Management also expects China to return to growth in Q1, while Services will maintain double-digit growth rates.

Apple Inc. Q1 2026 financial results

On 29 January 2025, Apple released its Q1 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 27 December 2025. Below are the key figures from the report compared to the same period in the 2025 financial year:

• Revenue: 143.75 billion USD (+16%)
• Net income: 42.10 billion USD (+15%)
• Earnings per share: 2.84 USD (+19%)
• Operating profit: 50.85 billion USD (+19%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 113.74 billion USD (+16%)
• Net sales – Services: 30.01 billion USD (+14%)
• iPhone: 85.27 billion USD (+23%)
• Mac: 8.39 billion USD (–7%)

#. iPad: 8.60 billion USD (+6%)

• Wearables, Home, and Accessories: 11.49 billion USD (–2%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 58.53 billion USD (+11%)
• Europe: 38.15 billion USD (+12%)
• Greater China: 25.53 billion USD (+38%)
• Japan: 9.41 billion USD (+5%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 12.14 billion USD (+18%)

Apple delivered one of the strongest quarters in its history in Q1 2026, confirming the resilience of its business model even amid a slowdown in global consumer demand. Record revenue and a clear beat versus consensus forecasts suggest that the market had underestimated both demand for flagship products and the scale of ecosystem monetisation.

The key driver of performance was the iPhone, which delivered the strongest quarterly result in the segment’s history. This is particularly notable given the maturity of the global smartphone market. Services once again reached a record high, confirming Apple’s strategic shift towards more predictable and higher-margin revenue streams.

At the same time, weakness in certain hardware categories, such as Mac and wearables, does not appear critical. These segments remain secondary to iPhone and Services and are more exposed to demand fluctuations between upgrade cycles. Importantly, the broader ecosystem continued to generate substantial operating cash flow, enabling Apple to invest in long-term development and to aggressively return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

In its outlook for Q2 2026, Apple expected total revenue to grow in the 13–16% range, implying sustained strong demand following the record December quarter. Gross margin was forecast at 48–49%, remaining near the upper end of Apple’s historical range. Management also specifically noted that Services revenue in Q2 2026 was expected to grow at a pace comparable to the December quarter, at approximately 14% year-on-year. On the hardware side, the forecast implied a more normalised trajectory following the exceptionally strong iPhone quarter.

Overall, Apple’s Q2 2026 outlook appears well balanced, combining double-digit revenue growth, very strong gross margins, and continued expansion of the Services business.

Apple Inc. Q2 2026 financial results

On 30 April 2026, Apple released its Q2 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 28 March 2026. The key figures compared with the same period of the 2025 financial year are as follows:

• Revenue: 111.18 billion USD (+16%)
• Net income: 29.58 billion USD (+19%)
• Earnings per share: 2.01 USD (+22%)
• Operating profit: 35.89 billion USD (+21%)

Revenue by segment:

• Net sales – Products: 80.21 billion USD (+17%)
• Net sales – Services: 30.98 billion USD (+16%)
• iPhone: 56.99 billion USD (+22%)
• Mac: 8.40 billion USD (+6%)
• iPad: 6.91 billion USD (+8%)
• Wearables, Home and Accessories: 7.90 billion USD (+5%)

Revenue by region:

• Americas: 45.09 billion USD (+12%)
• Europe: 28.06 billion USD (+15%)
• Greater China: 20.50 billion USD (+28%)
• Japan: 8.40 billion USD (+15%)
• Rest of Asia Pacific: 9.14 billion USD (+25%)

In Q2 of the 2026 financial year, Apple delivered one of its strongest March quarters in recent years. The company set records for the period in total revenue, iPhone sales, and earnings per share. Revenue increased by 16%, with growth recorded across all regions. This suggests that demand for Apple’s products remains resilient both in the US and internationally.

The primary growth driver was once again the iPhone. Segment revenue rose by 22%, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. Greater China deserves particular attention, where sales increased by 28%. For Apple, this is especially significant, as the Chinese market has been one of the most challenging in recent years due to intensifying competition from domestic manufacturers and geopolitical pressures.

Profitability also remained at a high level. Gross margin increased to 49.3%, operating profit rose by 21%, and operating cash flow totalled 28.7 billion USD. In addition, Apple increased its dividend to 0.27 USD per share and authorised a new 100 billion USD share buyback program. This confirms that the company continues to generate sufficient cash to support substantial capital returns to shareholders.

Guidance for Q3 of the 2026 financial year appears solid, although it already incorporates several constraining factors. Apple expects revenue growth of 14–17% year-on-year and gross margin in the range of 47.5–48.5%. Management also acknowledged potential margin pressure stemming from supply constraints and rising memory costs.

Overall, Apple’s report can be described as strong, albeit not without risks. The company delivered double-digit revenue growth, a record iPhone quarter, a new high in Services, elevated margins, and continued large-scale share repurchases. The main questions now relate to component costs, supply availability, and Apple’s ability to maintain high profitability amid rising memory expenses and increasing investment in AI development.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for Apple Inc.

Below are the key valuation multiples for Apple Inc. based on the Q2 2026 results, calculated using a share price of 302 USD.

Conclusion on Apple’s valuation multiples

For a conservative investor, Apple appears to be a very high-quality but expensive asset. The company remains one of the most resilient businesses in the market, generates substantial earnings, consistently produces strong cash flow, and maintains a net cash position. At the same time, across most key valuation multiples, the shares are already trading at a significant premium. It is therefore unsurprising that Berkshire Hathaway has been actively reducing its stake in Apple and accumulating cash.

Ultimately, Apple can be considered suitable for a conservative investor whose priority is business quality, resilience, and earnings predictability. However, it is important to recognise that at the current share price, the margin of safety from a valuation standpoint remains minimal.

Expert forecasts for Apple Inc. shares in 2025

• Barchart: 22 out of 42 analysts rated Apple shares as Strong Buy, 3 as Moderate Buy, 16 as Hold, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 350 USD, and the lower bound is 230 USD.
• MarketBeat: 24 out of 36 analysts assigned a Buy rating to the shares, 11 recommended Hold, and 1 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 350 USD, and the lower bound is 170 USD.
• TipRanks: 17 out of 27 analysts recommended Buy, 9 recommended Hold, and 1 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 350 USD, and the lower bound is at 239 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 10 out of 29 analysts rated the shares as Strong Buy, 9 as Buy, 8 as Hold, and 2 as Sell. The upper price target is 350 USD, and the lower bound is 200 USD.

Technical analysis and 2026 forecast for Apple Inc. stock

On the weekly chart, Apple shares are trading above the 200-period moving average, indicating that the broader trend remains upward. Additionally, the price has broken above the upper boundary of the channel, implying a projected move equal to the channel’s width towards 377 USD.

However, the Stochastic indicator is in overbought territory, signalling the possibility of a correction before the next upward wave or a slower advance, as the primary impulse that lifted the shares from 245 USD to 305 USD is gradually fading. Based on the current price dynamics of Apple shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows.

The primary forecast for AAPL shares assumes further growth towards resistance at 377 USD. However, signals from the Stochastic indicator suggest that the upward move may slow.

The alternative forecast for Apple stock assumes a test of support at 280 USD, followed by a rebound and a move higher towards resistance at 377 USD.

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