Intel strengthens its margin in Q3 2025, but shares may correct to 33 USD

Intel ended the third quarter of 2025 with a slight increase in revenue and a gross margin above guidance, confirming the stabilisation of its key financial indicators. However, INTC shares could see a correction to 33 USD.

In Q3 2025, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reported revenue of 13.7 billion USD, up 3% year-on-year. Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP EPS) were 0.23 USD, while the gross margin rose to 40%, exceeding the company’s guidance. GAAP profit (0.90 USD) appeared higher, but this was mainly due to one-off gains from the sale of a stake in Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ: MBLY) and the spin-off of Altera into a separate entity.

Sales growth was driven primarily by the Client Computing Group (CCG, +5%), while the Data Center and AI division remained roughly unchanged from a year earlier. The Foundry business, however, again posted a significant loss of about 2.3 billion USD, continuing to weigh heavily on the company’s overall profitability.

The outlook for Q4 2025 is cautious: revenue is expected to range between 12.8 and 13.8 billion USD, with earnings of around 0.08 USD per share. This represents a slight decline from current levels due to costs associated with new product launches.

The market reacted positively overall to the report, as the results came in above expectations and margins improved modestly. However, Intel still faces challenges in its loss-making Foundry division and needs to strengthen profitability in 2026.

The company is focusing on new process technologies (Intel 18A) and upcoming products (Panther Lake, Clearwater Forest), expecting these to attract more external customers and help stabilise cash flow.

This article reviews Intel Corporation, presents a fundamental analysis of Intel’s reports, and includes a technical analysis of INTC shares, forming the basis for the 2025 Intel stock forecast.

About Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation is a US technology company specialising in the development and production of microprocessors, chipsets, GPUs, systems-on-a-chip (SoC), network controllers, modems, flash memory, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chipsets, and sensors for vehicle automation. Founded in 1968 by Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, Intel introduced the world’s first microprocessor in 1971, laying the groundwork for its future success.

In the same year, Intel held its initial public offering (IPO) on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol INTC, becoming one of the first companies in the emerging technology sector.

Challenging times for Intel: the dot-com bubble, the pandemic, and competitive struggles

The company faced its first major setback during the dot-com bubble in 2000, when demand for PCs and servers plummeted. Management had increased production without anticipating the downturn, resulting in oversupply and falling prices. As a result, Intel was compelled to scale back production, cut costs, and develop a recovery program. Following the crisis, the technology market rebounded, reviving demand for Intel’s products and helping the company recover from the downturn.

The next major test came in 2021. A surge in demand for semiconductor products during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 drove increased production, leading to market oversaturation and a subsequent drop in prices, which, in turn, hit Intel’s revenue. However, the company’s challenges did not end there.

In 2023, Intel faced fierce competition from AMD and NVIDIA, whose products outperformed Intel’s processors and graphics solutions in both performance and energy efficiency. A key factor behind this loss of competitiveness was the previous management’s focus on business strategy and financial performance at the expense of engineering investment, leading to delays in transitioning to more advanced 7- and 5-nanometre technologies – already mastered by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), which produces chips for NVIDIA and AMD.

Investors’ reaction to the company’s difficulties was obvious – they sold off Intel shares. During the 2000 dot-com crisis, the company’s stock plunged by 82%. The current situation is similar, with the stock losing 70% of its value between its April 2021 peak and November 2024.

Intel is increasing investments in new factories and equipment upgrades for foundry operations to restore investor confidence and defend its market share. This strategy temporarily reduces profitability (the company ended 2024 with a loss). Intel’s management plans to lay off up to 15% of its workforce to reduce costs.

Intel Corporation Q3 2024 results

Intel released its Q3 2024 report on 31 October, revealing the following key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 13.3 billion USD (–6%)
• Net income (loss): 2.0 billion USD compared to 1.7 billion in Q3 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: 0.46 USD compared to 0.41 USD in Q3 2023
• Gross Margin: 18.0% (–2,780 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.3 billion USD (+9%)
• Network and Edge: 1.5 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (–8%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–28%)

In her comments on the report, Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, noted that the company’s profitability was impacted by expenses previously mentioned during the Q2 2024 results discussion. However, the actual results exceeded expectations. In Q3, Intel took significant steps to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and strengthen its market competitiveness. A substantial part of the workforce reduction program was also implemented, with plans to lay off an additional 15% of employees by the end of 2024.

The financial results were also impacted by write-offs of outdated products from the COVID-19 period, as these could not be integrated into current products.

Management had an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024. Revenue was projected in the 13.3–14.3 billion USD range, with adjusted EPS at 0.12 USD, reinforcing the possibility of the company returning to profitability.

Despite the current losses, Intel is encouraging shareholders to retain their shares and has paid a Q3 dividend of 0.12 USD per share.

Intel Corporation Q4 2024 results

On 30 January, Intel released its Q4 2024 report with the following key figures:

• Revenue: 14.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Net income (loss): (126) million USD compared to income of 2.7 billion in Q4 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: (0.03) USD compared to earnings of 0.63 USD in Q4 2023
• Gross margin: 32.9% (–650 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.0 billion USD (–9%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.4 billion USD (–3%)
• Network and Edge: 1.6 billion USD (+10%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.5 billion USD (–13%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–20%)

For Q1 2025, Intel projected revenue in the 11.7–12.7 billion USD range and a loss of 0.27 USD per share. The gross margin was expected at 36%, down from 51% in Q1 2024.

Q4 2024 marked the first financial quarter under the interim co-presidency of David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus following the departure of Pat Gelsinger. Michelle Holthaus noted that the last quarter represented a positive step forward, as Intel exceeded its forecasts for revenue, gross margin, and EPS. She emphasised the progress in executing the cost-cutting plan aimed at supporting the company’s recovery. David Zinsner stated that the plan had a positive impact, contributing to improved business efficiency, return on invested capital, and the company’s overall profitability.

Intel continues to move towards its foundry model by establishing Intel Foundry as a separate subsidiary. For Q1 2025, revenue from this division was expected to remain in line with Q4 2024 levels.

Despite positive elements in the company’s report, market participants reacted negatively to its release due to the anticipated decline in Intel’s revenues.

Intel Corporation Q1 2025 earnings results

On 25 April, Intel published its report for Q1 2025, which ended on 29 March. The key figures are presented below, compared with the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 12.7 billion USD (0%)
• Net income (loss): 887 million USD compared to a loss of 437 million USD in Q1 2024
• Loss per share: 0.13 USD compared to a loss of 0.09 USD in Q1 2024
• Gross margin: 39.2% (–590 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.6 billion USD (–8%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.1 billion USD (+8%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.7 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 0.9 billion USD (+47%)

Intel’s Q1 2025 report delivered mixed results. On the one hand, the company exceeded revenue expectations; on the other, it reported a net loss of 821 million USD – its fourth consecutive quarterly loss.

Management issued a cautious outlook for Q2 2025. Revenue was projected to range between 11.2 billion and 12.4 billion USD, with a potential loss per share of up to 0.32 USD. These figures fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner attributed this cautious stance to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tensions and potential new tariffs, which had impacted customer behaviour at the start of the year.

Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has embarked on a large-scale restructuring. Key measures include reducing management layers to speed up decision-making, introducing a four-day office working week to boost productivity, and lowering operating expenses to 17 billion USD in 2025 and 16 billion USD in 2026.

Nevertheless, the company continued to face significant challenges in the AI segment, where its competitors Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) firmly hold leading positions. Intel’s AI initiatives, including its Gaudi accelerators, have so far fallen short of expectations, while plans to launch the Falcon Shores GPU have been scaled back.

Intel Corporation Q2 2025 earnings results

On 24 July, Intel released its earnings report for Q2 2025, which ended on 28 June. Key figures, compared with the same period in 2024, are outlined below:

• Revenue: 12.86 billion USD (0%)
• Net loss: 400 million USD compared to a profit of 100 million USD in Q2 2024
• Loss per share: 0.10 USD compared to a profit of 0.02 USD in Q2 2024
• Gross margin: 29.7% (–900 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.9 billion USD (–3%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.9 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 1.1 billion USD (+20%)

In Q2 2025, Intel reported revenue of 12.9 billion USD, which was nearly flat year‑on‑year and slightly above analyst expectations. Despite this, the company posted a non‑GAAP adjusted loss of 400 million USD, or 0.10 USD per share. This result was due to significant one‑off costs, including 1.9 billion USD in restructuring expenses, 800 million USD in asset write‑downs, and an additional 200 million USD in charges.

For Q3 2025, Intel expected revenue to range between 12.6 and 13.6 billion USD, broadly in line with current levels. The non‑GAAP gross margin was forecast at 36%, with earnings per share anticipated to be around breakeven. Under GAAP, the company projected a loss of 0.24 USD per share, with a gross margin of 34.1% and a negative tax rate. This forecast reflected continued pressure on profitability, while also signalling efforts to stabilise financial performance through cost control and a focus on core products.

Intel’s Q2 2025 results highlighted several ongoing challenges. First, the company faced significant pressure on profitability due to restructuring and major write‑downs, which reduced both gross and operating margins.

Second, Intel continued to struggle to attract external clients to its Intel Foundry Services (IFS) business, which provides contract chip manufacturing. The Foundry segment generated around 4.3 billion USD in Q2 revenue, but this was almost entirely from internal orders. Revenue from third‑party clients was minimal at just 22 million USD – a negligible figure given the substantial investments made in this area. This indicates that IFS has yet to establish itself as a serious competitor to players like TSMC and Samsung in the foundry market. Intel continues to promote the Foundry direction as strategically important and placed its bets on Intel 18A process technology. Still, full commercial adoption by external customers remains at a very early stage.

Nonetheless, there are potential growth areas within the company. The Data Center and AI segment grew by 4%, IFS rose by 3%, and there was a notable +20% increase in Mobileye and other niche areas, reflecting early signs of positive momentum.

The new leadership under CEO Lip‑Bu Tan is restructuring the corporate organisation, reducing costs, reassessing capital investments, and focusing on key products – including the development of AI processors and the next generation of Intel 18A chips: Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest, which are expected to launch in 2025–2026.

Intel currently presents a moderately risky profile. From a long‑term perspective, for investors willing to tolerate earnings volatility in exchange for potential upside from AI and IFS, the current price range may offer an attractive entry point. However, for those seeking more stable short‑term returns, there are less volatile and more profitable alternatives in the sector, such as Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO).

Intel Corporation Q3 2025 results

On 23 October, Intel released its financial results for Q3 2025, which ended on 27 September. The key figures compared with the same period in 2024 are as follows:

• Revenue: 13.65 billion USD (+3%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 1.02 billion USD, compared with a loss of 1.97 billion USD in Q3 2024
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.23 USD, compared with a loss of 0.46 USD in Q3 2024
• Gross margin: 40.0% (+22 percentage points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.54 billion USD (+5%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.12 billion USD (–1%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.24 billion USD (–2%)
• All other: 0.99 billion USD (+3%)

Intel delivered results ahead of expectations, with both revenue and non-GAAP EPS exceeding forecasts. The gross margin came in above the July guidance, and instead of the GAAP loss projected in the previous quarter, the company posted a net profit of 4.1 billion USD. In Q3 2025, most of the GAAP profit was driven by one-off factors – the partial sale of Intel’s stake in Mobileye and the spin-off of Altera into a separate entity. Excluding these effects, results would have been more modest, with adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) at 0.23 USD. Operating expenses declined, helping to support margins, while operating cash flow totalled about 2.5 billion USD.

The Foundry segment remains the company’s weak spot, with revenue of 4.2 billion USD and a loss of 2.3 billion USD, driven by high costs related to the rollout of the 18A process technology and low factory utilisation. Nevertheless, Intel noted progress: the fab has reached full capacity, and a new partnership with NVIDIA could help boost contract-manufacturing orders.

Intel’s management reported that demand currently exceeds supply and is likely to remain so until 2026. This should help keep prices stable, but increases the risk of supply-chain disruptions.

For Q4 2025, Intel expects revenue of 12.8–13.8 billion USD, gross margin of around 36.5%, and non-GAAP EPS of about 0.08 USD. The forecast excludes Altera’s results following its divestment. Overall, the quarter was stronger than expected; however, the year-end outlook indicates continued pressure on profits and margins, particularly within the Foundry segment.

Fundamental analysis of Intel Corporation

Below is the fundamental analysis of INTC based on the results for Q3 2025:

• Liquidity: at the end of the quarter, Intel held approximately 30.9 billion USD in cash and short-term investments (11.1 billion USD in cash and 19.8 billion USD in short-term securities). Current assets totalled 51.7 billion USD, against liabilities of 32.3 billion USD, giving a current ratio of 1.6× – a solid level of liquidity.

Operating cash flow for the quarter reached 2.5 billion USD, and adjusted free cash flow (FCF) turned positive again at 0.9 billion USD – the first positive FCF after several weak quarters.

Additional liquidity inflows came from external sources: Intel received 5.7 billion USD from the US government under the CHIPS Act and other agreements. At the same time, NVIDIA invested 5.0 billion USD, and SoftBank invested 2.0 billion USD. Together, these measures bolstered the company’s cash buffer without incurring new debt.

• Debt and financial stability: short-term debt stood at 2.5 billion USD, long-term debt at 44.1 billion USD, bringing total debt to 46.6 billion USD. After accounting for cash, net debt amounted to 15.6 billion USD. Over the past year, the company reduced its debt burden by roughly 3.4 billion USD.

In August, Fitch Ratings downgraded Intel to BBB with a negative outlook, noting that the company must continue to reduce net debt and accelerate the commercialisation of new technologies to maintain its investment-grade status.

• Profitability: gross margin improved to 38.2% (GAAP) and 40.0% (non-GAAP). Operating margin rose to 5% (GAAP) and 11% (non-GAAP) – a sign of progress, though headroom remains limited.

GAAP net profit totalled 4.1 billion USD, driven mainly by one-off events, including the spin-off of Altera and the partial sale of Mobileye.

• Cash flow and investment: operating cash flow totalled 2.5 billion USD, while capital expenditure (CapEx) was 3.0 billion USD. Thanks to government and partner contributions, adjusted free cash flow reached +0.9 billion USD. For 2025, Intel plans to maintain a high level of investment – around 18 billion USD – reflecting the capital-intensive nature of semiconductor manufacturing.

The Intel Foundry segment remains the primary source of losses, generating 4.2 billion USD in revenue and an operating loss of 2.3 billion USD for the quarter. The main reasons are the high costs of implementing Intel 18A technology and low fab utilisation. Until the company secures additional external orders, this segment will continue to weigh on overall profitability and cash flow.

Conclusion – fundamental view on INTC: Intel has strong liquidity and positive operating cash flow, providing a solid buffer against short-term risks. Debt remains manageable, but narrow margins still constrain profit stability. Earnings quality is uneven: a significant portion of GAAP profit comes from one-off items, while long-term stability will depend on Intel’s ability to generate free cash flow without external support. The main risk lies in sustained losses within the Foundry business and the slow progress towards profitability of the 18A process technology.

On the positive side, Intel benefits from government backing and strategic investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank, while demand continues to exceed supply.

Overall, Intel’s financial position at this stage appears moderately positive.

Expert forecasts for Intel Corporation stock for 2025

• Barchart: 2 out of 41 analysts rated Intel Corporation shares as a Strong Buy, 33 as Hold, 1 as Sell, and 5 as Strong Sell. The highest price target is 50 USD, and the lowest is 20 USD.
• MarketBeat: 2 out of 34 specialists rated the stock as Buy, 24 Hold, and 8 Sell. The highest price target is 50 USD, and the lowest is 20 USD.
• TipRanks: 2 out of 32 professionals rated the stock as Buy, 24 as Hold, and 6 as Sell. The highest price target is 50 USD, and the lowest is 20 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 1 out of 28 experts rated the stock as Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 20 Hold, 3 Sell, and 3 Strong Sell. The highest price target is 45 USD, and the lowest is 20 USD.

Intel Corporation stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly chart, Intel’s shares continue to trade within a downward channel. Following the release of the Q2 2025 report, Intel stock gained strong upward momentum, rising by 120% between August and November 2025 without any significant corrections. Currently, the share price is testing the trendline, which serves as resistance. Based on the current performance of Intel’s share price, the possible scenarios for 2025 are as follows:

The base-case forecast for Intel shares suggests a rebound from the trendline, followed by a decline towards 33 USD. This move would be a correction before the next upward wave. A rebound from the 33 USD support level would indicate a resumption of growth in INTC shares, with the target resistance level at 50 USD.

The optimistic forecast for Intel stock assumes a breakout above the trendline, followed by further growth towards the 50 USD resistance level.

Risks of investing in Intel Corporation stock

When investing in Intel Corporation stock, it is necessary to consider factors that could negatively affect the company’s future revenue. The key factors are outlined below:

• Manufacturing challenges: Intel faces production difficulties, particularly as it transitions to more advanced process technologies. Delays in adopting new practices and overspending on manufacturing projects may lead to higher costs without a corresponding increase in revenue.
• Contract business challenges: Intel’s ambition to become the second-largest contract chipmaker by 2030 faces challenges in attracting clients, intense competition from Samsung and TSMC, and risks associated with this partnership model, which requires significant investments with no guarantee of a return.
• Loss of market share and competition: Intel’s traditional dominance in the PC market is diminishing due to reduced demand for these devices. Competition from ARM processors, particularly in mobile devices, servers, and data centres, threatens Intel’s income.
• AI and data centre market: Intel is notably lagging in the AI chip industry, where NVIDIA and AMD hold a significant competitive edge. This has resulted in a loss of market share, particularly in the data centre segment, which is crucial for generating high-margin revenue.
• Suspended dividend payouts: the suspension of dividends, paid consistently since 1992, may discourage investors focused on stable income. Such financial restrictions could erode investor confidence and ultimately push the stock lower.
• Geopolitical and economic factors: tensions between the US and China, a key semiconductor market, could negatively impact Intel’s business in this area. Additionally, the company’s global manufacturing presence is subject to serious geopolitical risks for several reasons.

These factors collectively threaten Intel’s future earnings, potentially leading to a decline in revenue and higher unplanned expenses.

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