NVIDIA sets new records, but shares retreat – forecast for NVDA shares in 2026

NVIDIA’s report confirmed the strength of the AI market, but it did not act as a catalyst for further gains, given the already elevated valuation. In 2026, NVDA shares are expected to correct towards 195 USD, followed by a recovery to 270 USD and subsequently towards 350 USD.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) released its Q1 2027 financial year results, confirming that demand for AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong. Revenue increased to 81.6 billion USD, rising by 85% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. Following a strong Q4 in the 2026 financial year, the company once again demonstrated accelerating growth.

The primary driver of expansion remained the Data Center segment. Data Center revenue increased to 75.2 billion USD, while networking revenue within the segment surged by 199% year-on-year to 14.8 billion USD. This demonstrates that NVIDIA is generating revenue not only from GPUs but also from the broader infrastructure ecosystem supporting AI systems.

Profitability also remained robust. Non-GAAP gross margin stood at 75.0%, non-GAAP operating profit rose to 53.78 billion USD, and non-GAAP EPS reached 1.87 USD, exceeding market expectations.

Additional support for the shares came from capital returns. NVIDIA allocated approximately 20 billion USD to share repurchases and dividends, approved a new 80 billion USD buyback program, and increased its quarterly dividend to 0.25 USD per share.

Investor reaction, however, was restrained. Despite strong results and guidance above expectations, NVIDIA shares began to decline. The market had already priced in extremely high expectations, and even a strong report proved insufficient to trigger a sharp rally. An additional source of caution relates to how long the company can sustain such elevated growth rates.

This article examines NVIDIA Corporation, outlines the key sources of its revenue, reviews its quarterly performance, and discusses expectations for the upcoming quarter. It also provides the forecast for NVIDIA shares for the 2026 calendar year.

About NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation is a US tech company established in 1993 by Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem. Jensen Huang has remained the company’s CEO since its foundation. NVIDIA specialises in producing GPUs, chips for AI, data centres, and autopilot systems. The company plays a key role in developing gaming, professional visualisation, and AI computing. NVIDIA also held a prominent place in the cryptocurrency mining industry as its graphics cards were widely used for mining Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. The company went public on 22 January 1999 on the NASDAQ under the NVDA ticker symbol.

NVIDIA Corporation’s main revenue streams

NVIDIA is primarily known for its GPUs, but it has recently expanded into the AI segment, dominating the market with high-performance chips used for AI technology development. The company reports revenues from this segment under the Data Center section. NVIDIA’s business model focuses on several key areas:

• GPUs: this includes the Gaming and Professional Visualization segments. The company supplies the gaming industry with GPUs for gaming PCs, consoles, and other devices, ensuring high-performance gaming experiences. Professional Visualization includes GPU sales for professionals involved in 3D graphics, CAD, animation, video editing, and other tasks that require high computing power.
• Data Center: this is one of NVIDIA’s fastest-growing segments. The company develops GPUs and other hardware solutions for data centres, which are used in AI infrastructure, deep learning technologies, cloud computing, and big data processing.
• Automotive segment: NVIDIA is actively developing products for the automotive sector, including self-driving platforms and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
• OEM and Others: this category includes earnings from technology licensing, sales of other chips and solutions to OEM manufacturers, such as laptop and other electronic device producers.

NVIDIA diversifies its operations, covering various segments, including gaming, data centres, and automotive components. The company publishes statistics on the Gaming, Data Center, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments in its quarterly reports, while other indicators are included in the Other Revenues section.

NVIDIA Corporation Q2 2025 financial results

On 28 August 2024, NVIDIA released its earnings report for Q2 2025 of the financial year ended on 28 July 2024. Below are the key figures compared to the corresponding period of last year:

• Revenue: 30.04 billion USD (+122%)
• Net income: 16.95 billion USD (+152%)
• Earnings per share: 0.68 USD (+152%)
• Operating profit: 19.94 billion USD (+156%)
• Gross margin: 75.1% (+500 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 26.27 billion USD (+154%)
• Gaming: 2.88 billion USD (+16%)
• Professional Visualization: 454 million USD (+20%)
• Automotive: 346 million USD (+37%)

In the first half of 2024, NVIDIA returned 15.40 billion USD to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. As of the end of Q2 2024, the company had 7.50 billion USD remaining for stock buybacks. On 26 August 2024, the Board of Directors approved an additional 50.00 billion USD for share repurchases, with no expiration date.

Although the Q2 fiscal 2025 results surpassed analyst forecasts, NVIDIA shares fell immediately after the release. Investors were not particularly impressed by the revenue and profit growth, as financial indicators had surged from 200% to 700% in the previous quarter. Maintaining such rapid growth over the long term is clearly unrealistic, but investor expectations remain elevated.

A fundamental analysis of NVIDIA’s report showed that revenue increased across all segments. The Data Center segment, which focuses on AI technologies, remained the leader. The company’s operating margin chart below illustrates the extent to which AI has influenced NVIDIA’s performance.

OpenAI announced ChatGPT on 30 November 2022, and by Q1 2023, NVIDIA reported an increase in its operating margin. It then grew at a rapid pace, even surpassing the levels seen during the cryptocurrency mining boom. In fact, this suggests that the company has been raising product prices without a decline in demand, allowing it to generate more than 50 cents in profit for every dollar invested.

NVIDIA Corporation Q3 2025 financial results

On 20 November 2024, NVIDIA released its earnings report for Q3 2025 of the financial year ended on 27 October 2024. Below are the key figures compared with the corresponding period of last year:

• Revenue: 35.08 billion USD (+94%)
• Net income: 19.31 billion USD (+109%)
• Earnings per share: 0.78 USD (+111%)
• Operating profit: 21.86 billion USD (+110%)
• Gross margin: 74.6% (+60 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 30.77 billion USD (+112%)
• Gaming: 3.27 billion USD (+15%)
• Professional Visualization: 486 million USD (+17%)
• Automotive: 449 million USD (+72%)

Jensen Huang commented on the report, saying that “The age of artificial intelligence is in full steam, driving a global shift to NVIDIA computing,” emphasising the strong demand for the Hopper and Blackwell microarchitecture products, which drove record results in the last quarter.

For Q4 of the 2025 financial year, NVIDIA forecasted revenue of 37.50 billion USD (with a potential deviation of 2%) and a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5%, reflecting confidence in continued growth despite supply restraints, particularly with the ramp-up of Blackwell production.

NVIDIA Corporation Q4 2025 financial results

On 26 February 2024, NVIDIA released its earnings report for Q4 2025 of the financial year ended on 26 January 2025. Below are the key figures compared with the corresponding period of last year:

• Revenue: 39.33 billion USD (+78%)
• Net income: 22.09 billion USD (+80%)
• Earnings per share: 0.89 USD (+82%)
• Operating profit: 24.03 billion USD (+77%)
• Gross margin: 73.0% (+300 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 35.58 billion USD (+93%)
• Gaming: 2.54 billion USD (–11%)
• Professional Visualization: 511 million USD (+10%)
• Automotive: 570 million USD (+103%)

Jensen Huang commented on the Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings report, saying that “artificial intelligence has been developing at an incredible pace, as agentic AI and physical AI are creating the basis for the next AI wave, which will revolutionise the largest industries”, underscoring the company’s key role in the AI boom, which led to record revenues of 39.30 billion USD. He highlighted the strong results of the Data Center segment, which reached 35.60 billion USD, thanks to demand for the Hopper and Blackwell microarchitecture solutions.

For Q1 fiscal 2026, NVIDIA had projected revenue of 43.00 billion USD (with a possible variance of 2%) and a non-GAAP gross margin of 71.0%, indicating the company’s revenue remained robust. However, the decline in gross margin raised concerns among investors.

NVIDIA Corporation Q1 2026 financial results

On 28 May 2025, NVIDIA released its report for Q1 2026 of the financial year ended on 27 April 2025. Below are the key figures compared with the corresponding period last year:

• Revenue: 44.06 billion USD (+69%)
• Net income: 18.78 billion USD (+26%)
• Earnings per share: 0.76 USD (+27%)
• Operating profit: 21.63 billion USD (+28%)
• Gross margin: 60.5% (–1,790 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 39.11 billion USD (+73%)
• Gaming: 3.76 billion USD (+42%)
• Professional Visualization: 509 million USD (+20%)
• Automotive: 567 million USD (+72%)

NVIDIA’s Q1 fiscal 2026 report reinforced the company’s leading position in the global AI race despite serious geopolitical and regulatory obstacles. It was a record-breaking quarter, with revenue reaching 44.06 billion USD, up 69% year-on-year. Growth was primarily driven by continued high demand for accelerated computing and AI infrastructure. The Data Center segment, which includes sales of high-performance GPUs to large cloud providers and corporate clients, generated 39.1 billion USD, up 73% from the previous year.

However, the quarter also saw serious challenges. One of the key negative factors was the US government’s restrictions on the export of advanced AI chips to China. Jensen Huang commented on this situation during a conference call, noting that despite persistent strong demand from China, the company was unable to meet it due to regulatory constraints. As a result, NVIDIA wrote off inventory worth 4.5 billion USD, primarily related to H20 chips intended for the Chinese market, and estimated lost revenue for the quarter at approximately 2.5 billion USD. For Q2 fiscal 2026, the company had projected a revenue loss of 8 billion USD due to the restrictions.

Huang also expressed concerns about the broader fallout from these trade restrictions, warning that the ban on advanced AI technology exports could have inadvertently accelerated the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry, which might ultimately have undermined US global technological leadership. Huang also emphasised that revenue from China accounted for a smaller part of NVIDIA’s total sales at the time, with losses offset mainly by growing demand in North America, Europe, and newly emerging markets, including the Middle East.

For Q2 fiscal 2026, NVIDIA had expected revenue of approximately 45 billion USD. This forecast reflected the active rollout of the new Blackwell chip architecture, which, according to Huang, was already experiencing unprecedented demand from hyperscalers, government AI development programs, and major corporate clients. The company anticipated that strong demand for hardware solutions and AI software products would persist through the end of the fiscal year.

However, despite continued technological leadership and robust demand for AI solutions, NVIDIA faced signs of a slowdown in its key Data Center segment. Although revenue rose 73% year-on-year, the segment fell short of market expectations, which constrained the stock’s growth following the report’s release. This may have indicated the start of a normalisation phase after the rapid acceleration driven by the AI boom.

Nevertheless, the company continued to demonstrate exceptional financial performance and remained at the forefront of technological innovation. Losses related to export restrictions on China were severe but were offset mainly by global demand and the rollout of the next-generation Blackwell architecture. NVIDIA’s strategy to diversify its client base and actively expand into regions with rising AI initiatives forms a strong foundation for sustainable growth in fiscal 2026 and beyond.

NVIDIA Corporation Q2 2026 financial results

On 27 August 2025, NVIDIA released its Q2 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 27 July 2025. Key figures compared with the same period last year are as follows:

• Revenue: 46.74 billion USD (+56%)
• Net income: 26.42 billion USD (+59%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.05 USD (+56%)
• Operating profit: 30.16 billion USD (+30%)
• Gross margin: 72.7% (–300 bps)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 41.09 billion USD (+56%)
• Gaming: 4.28 billion USD (+48%)
• Professional Visualization: 601 million USD (+32%)
• Automotive: 586 million USD (+69%)
• OEM & Other: 173 million USD (+97%)

NVIDIA reported strong results for Q2 2026. Revenue reached 46.7 billion USD (+6% q/q, +56% y/y). The main driver was the data centre segment, which posted 41.1 billion USD (+5% q/q, +56% y/y), with growth supported by Blackwell chip shipments (the Blackwell Data Center subsegment rose 17% sequentially). Gross margin was 72.4% GAAP and 72.7% non-GAAP. Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP EPS) came in at 1.05 USD. However, this included a one-time positive effect from the release of a previously established 180 million USD reserve related to H20 chip deliveries to China. Excluding this one-off, EPS would have been 1.04 USD. Gaming revenue increased to 4.3 billion USD, Professional Visualization reached 601 million USD, and Automotive was 586 million USD.

The company emphasised that there were no H20 chip sales to China during the quarter, and forecasts for the next period also exclude these sales. The board approved an increase in the share repurchase program by a further 60 billion USD. The dividend was set at 0.01 USD per share, with a record date of 11 September 2025 and a payment date of 2 October 2025.

The outlook for Q3 2026 projected revenue of approximately 54.0 billion USD (±2%), a non-GAAP gross margin of around 73.5% (±50 bps), non-GAAP operating expenses of roughly 4.2 billion USD, other income around 500 million USD, and an effective tax rate of roughly 16.5% (±1 pp). The company expected to close the financial year with a non-GAAP margin of around 73.5%. It is important to note that this forecast did not factor in potential H20 chip sales to China. For investors, this meant that management’s base-case scenario was built solely on current global demand and the acceleration of new Blackwell chip shipments, without assuming a recovery in the Chinese market.

NVIDIA Corporation Q3 2026 financial results

On 19 November 2025, NVIDIA released its Q3 2026 results for the financial year ended on 26 October 2025. The key figures, compared with the same period in the previous year, are as follows:

• Revenue: 57.01 billion USD (+62%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 31.76 billion USD (+59%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.30 USD (+60%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 37.75 billion USD (+62%)
• Gross margin (non-GAAP): 73.6% (–140 bps)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 51.22 billion USD (+66%)
• Gaming: 4.27 billion USD (+30%)
• Professional Visualization: 760 million USD (+56%)
• Automotive: 592 million USD (+32%)
• OEM & Other: 174 million USD (+79%)

NVIDIA’s Q3 FY2026 results came in ahead of market expectations. Revenue reached approximately 57 billion USD, and non-GAAP EPS was 1.30 USD – both exceeding analyst forecasts. The company once again delivered strong growth in both revenue and profit.

The primary source of income remains the Data Centre segment, which generated 51.2 billion USD, up 66% year-on-year and accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue. Other segments, including Gaming, continue to grow at a slower pace and make up a smaller share of the total.

Management issued a strong outlook for Q4 FY2026, forecasting revenue of around 65 billion USD and a gross margin of approximately 75% – also above analyst expectations. According to management, NVIDIA has already secured confirmed orders for its new Blackwell and Rubin chips worth around 500 billion USD through the end of 2026, with demand for AI hardware continuing to exceed supply.

Management also emphasised that the current growth does not appear to be a bubble: clients continue to invest heavily in infrastructure, while production capacity remains a limiting factor. However, analysts caution that growth rates may eventually slow due to power-supply constraints and market saturation. For now, based on the Q3 results and guidance for the next quarter, demand for NVIDIA’s products remains extremely strong.

NVIDIA Corporation Q4 2026 financial results

On 20 May 2026, NVIDIA released its Q1 2027 financial year results for the quarter ended 26 April 2026. Below are the key figures compared to the same period last year:

• Revenue: 68.13 billion USD (+73%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 39.55 billion USD (+79%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.62 USD (+82%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 46.11 billion USD (+81%)
• Gross margin (non-GAAP): 75.2% (+220 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 62.31 billion USD (+75%)
• Gaming: 3.73 billion USD (+47%)
• Professional Visualization: 1.32 billion USD (+159%)
• Automotive: 604 million USD (+6%)
• OEM & Other: 161 million USD (+28%)

NVIDIA reported a very strong Q4 2026 result, surpassing market expectations, although investors typically expect even more acceleration from a company of this calibre. Revenue reached 68.13 billion USD (+73% YoY and +20% QoQ), with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) coming in at 1.62 USD, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.53 USD.

The primary growth driver for the quarter, as in previous periods, was the data centre segment. Revenue in this area reached 62.31 billion USD (+75% YoY and +22% QoQ), driven by both computing and networking.

In terms of profitability, the quarter was exceptionally strong: gross margin increased to 75.0% (GAAP) and 75.2% (non-GAAP), while net income under GAAP totalled 43.0 billion USD, with GAAP EPS of 1.76 USD. In the 2026 financial year, NVIDIA returned 41.1 billion USD to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, while maintaining a significant buyback program balance of 58.5 billion USD.

The outlook for the next quarter is also strong. For Q1 2027, the company forecasts revenue of approximately 78.0 billion USD, significantly exceeding analyst expectations (the average estimate being around 72.6 billion USD). NVIDIA specifically noted that the forecast excludes revenue from Data Centre compute in China. The company also mentioned that it had received licences to ship small volumes of H200 to China. However, this does not alter the overall picture, as growth is driven by global demand outside China.

NVIDIA Corporation Q1 2027 financial results

On 20 May 2026, NVIDIA released its report for Q1 of the 2027 financial year, which ended on 26 April 2026. Below are the key figures compared with the same period of the previous year:

• Revenue: 81.62 billion USD (+85%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 45.55 billion USD (+139%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.87 USD (+140%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 53.78 billion USD (+147%)
• Gross margin (non-GAAP): 75.0% (+1450 bps)

Revenue by segment:

• Data Center: 74.25 billion USD (+92%)
• Hyperscale: 37.87 billion USD (+115%)
• AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise: 37.37 billion USD (+74%)
• Edge Computing: 6.37 billion USD (+28%)

NVIDIA’s Q1 2027 financial year report extended the strong momentum seen in Q4 of the 2026 financial year. In the previous quarter, the company generated 68.1 billion USD (+73% year-on-year). In Q1 of the 2027 financial year, revenue rose further to 81.6 billion USD, increasing by 85% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. Following a record Q4, the company showed no signs of deceleration and once again confirmed robust and sustained demand for AI infrastructure. The Data Center segment remains the primary driver of growth. In Q4 of the 2026 financial year, Data Center revenue amounted to 62.3 billion USD, rising to 75.2 billion USD in Q1 of the 2027 financial year.

Profitability remained exceptionally strong. Non-GAAP gross margin stood at 75.0%, compared with 75.2% in the previous quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit increased to 53.78 billion USD, while non-GAAP earnings per share reached 1.87 USD, versus analyst expectations of approximately 1.77 USD. NVIDIA continues to scale revenue rapidly while maintaining one of the highest margin profiles in the technology sector.

For Q2 of the 2027 financial year, NVIDIA expects revenue of approximately 91.0 billion USD, plus or minus 2%, exceeding the market forecast of around 87.2 billion USD. The company again clarified that revenue from Data Center Compute shipments to China is excluded from its guidance. Geopolitical risk therefore remains, although current growth is primarily supported by customers outside the Chinese market.

An additional positive factor was the increase in capital returns to shareholders. In Q1 of the 2027 financial year, NVIDIA allocated approximately 20 billion USD to share repurchases and dividends, approved an additional 80 billion USD buyback program, and increased its quarterly dividend from 0.01 to 0.25 USD per share. For a company delivering growth at this scale, this signals a strong cash position and management’s confidence in future cash generation.

Analysis of insider Activity in NVIDIA Corporation shares

An analysis of insider activity in NVIDIA during 2025 and the first months of 2026 shows that company executives continue to actively realise gains following the strong share price appreciation. However, this signal should not be interpreted as a direct deterioration in the company’s business outlook. Most transactions remain linked to pre-approved 10b5-1 trading plans, tax obligations, and personal capital diversification.

In March 2026, a new wave of transactions took place. Director Mark Stevens sold 221,682 shares, Ajay Puri sold 600,000 shares, and Colette Kress sold 62,650 shares. Smaller disposals were also recorded by Aarti Shah, Donald Robertson, and John Dabiri. This confirms that insiders continue to use NVIDIA’s elevated valuation to monetise portions of their shareholdings.

Some transactions remain technical in nature. For example, Jensen Huang’s March filing reflected tax withholding and internal transfers between ownership structures. Following these transactions, Huang continued to control approximately 812.45 million NVIDIA shares, which, out of 24.2 billion shares outstanding, represents roughly 3.36% of the company. In other words, the founder remains a major shareholder, and his interests remain aligned with NVIDIA’s long-term value creation.

The absence of meaningful open-market insider purchases remains an important consideration. Executives and directors continue to sell shares but have not demonstrated a willingness to buy on the open market, even after local corrections. This suggests that internally, the current valuation is unlikely to be perceived as obviously cheap. However, this signal must now be interpreted with greater caution, as NVIDIA itself is actively repurchasing shares and has received new authorisation for an additional 80 billion USD buyback program.

Overall, NVIDIA’s insider activity currently appears neutral to mildly cautious. Ongoing sales and the absence of purchases point to elevated valuation levels and a desire among management to realise part of their gains. Nevertheless, this should not be viewed as a direct bearish signal, as founders and senior executives retain substantial holdings, and most transactions are structured and pre-planned.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for NVIDIA Corporation

Below are the key valuation multiples for NVIDIA based on the Q1 2027 financial year results, calculated at a share price of 215 USD:

Conclusion on NVIDIA’s valuation multiples

For a conservative investor, NVIDIA appears to be a very high-quality but expensive asset. The company continues to deliver strong growth, exceptionally high profitability, robust free cash flow generation, and maintains a substantial net cash position. From a financial stability perspective, the business remains exceptionally strong.

However, across most key valuation multiples, the shares are already trading at a significant premium, particularly on a P/S, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and P/B basis.

Ultimately, NVIDIA cannot be described as a low-valuation opportunity. Rather, it represents an investment case based on business quality, AI leadership, and long-term earnings growth.

Expert forecasts for NVIDIA Corporation

stock

• Barchart: 43 out of 49 analysts rated NVIDIA shares as Strong Buy, 3 as Buy, 2 as Hold, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 500 USD, and the lower bound is 145 USD.
• MarketBeat: 51 out of 54 analysts assigned a Buy rating, and 3 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 500 USD, and the lower bound is 218 USD.
• TipRanks: 38 out of 40 analysts assigned a Buy rating, 1 recommended Hold, and 1 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 500 USD, and the lower bound is 250 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 49 out of 62 analysts rated the shares as Strong Buy, 10 as Buy, 2 as Hold, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 500 USD, and the lower bound is 180 USD.

NVIDIA Corporation stock price forecast for 2026

On the weekly chart, NVDA shares are trading above the 200-period moving average, indicating that the broader trend remains upward. In addition, the price continues to move within an ascending channel, which provides a framework for identifying potential upside targets. However, the Stochastic indicator is already in overbought territory, signalling the risk of a corrective pullback before the next upward wave. Based on the current price dynamics of NVIDIA shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows:

The primary forecast for NVIDIA shares assumes a test of support at 195 USD, followed by a rebound and a move higher towards the upper boundary of the channel at 270 USD. In the event of a breakout above the upper channel line, further upside equal to the channel’s width is likely, with the next target at 350 USD.

The alternative forecast for NVIDIA stock assumes a break below support at 195 USD. In this scenario, NVDA could correct towards 165 USD, where a renewed advance towards the first target at 270 USD would be expected.

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