Year-end rally or another decline: what lies ahead for Brent?

After another decline, Brent prices are recovering and trading near 59.80 USD per barrel. Details — in our analysis for 18 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI): previous value – 3.0%, forecast – 3.1%
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: previous value – 236K, forecast – 224K
• Brent forecast for 18 December 2025: 58.60 and 61.30

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis of Brent for today, 20 November 2025, takes into account that Brent prices are forming a corrective wave and are trading near the 59.80 USD per barrel level.

Potential triggers for changes in Brent prices under current conditions include:

• The U.S. is strengthening sanctions and the blockade of oil tankers from Venezuela. Against this backdrop, concerns over reduced oil supplies are emerging, which supports Brent prices.
• Positive prospects regarding a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine may ease price pressure, as expectations of lifting restrictions on Russian oil exports increase potential supply.
• Weak economic data, including from the U.S., China, and other major energy consumers, may reduce demand, keeping prices under pressure.
• Weekly global oil inventory reports reflect actual changes in available supply, which may increase volatility in Brent prices.
• A weaker USD increases oil affordability for other countries.

The Brent forecast for 18 December 2025 considers that, following the systematic decline since 25 October 2025, prices may form a year-end rally and recover part of the losses.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent prices tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, the market is working off this signal through a recovery wave.

The Brent price forecast for 18 December 2025 identifies the 61.30 USD level as the primary upside target. A breakout above this resistance would open the way for a stronger upward wave.

At the same time, an alternative scenario should not be ruled out, in which Brent prices may resume the downward trend, with the downside target at 58.60 USD.

Summary

A weaker USD amid recent economic data may create conditions for a rebound in Brent prices. Today’s Brent technical analysis suggests considering a potential move toward the 61.30 USD level.

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