US rhetoric on Iran triggered a sharp market reversal

Brent crude oil prices have entered a corrective phase after a prolonged rally, encountering a combination of technical and fundamental pressure factors. The current quote stands at 63.90 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 15 January 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent crude oil prices declined after rising for six consecutive trading sessions
• Concerns over an imminent US military strike on Iran have eased, reducing the geopolitical premium in oil prices
• The easing of geopolitical rhetoric triggered a sharp downward reversal in quotes
• Brent forecast for 15 January 2026: 67.35

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil prices moved lower after rising for six consecutive trading sessions. Buyers failed to gain a foothold above the key resistance level at 66.45 USD, which triggered a confident rebound downwards. Currently, prices are approaching the nearest support level at 62.85 USD.

Pressure on the oil market intensified amid easing concerns over an imminent US military strike on Iran. The softening of geopolitical rhetoric triggered a sharp downward reversal in prices. Previously, the market had received support from supply disruption risks linked to unrest in Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer within OPEC, with production volumes of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. The situation changed following statements by Donald Trump, which significantly reduced the level of geopolitical tension.

Additional pressure on Brent prices came from US oil inventory data. Commercial inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels, while traders had expected an average decline of 2.2 million barrels, which reinforced negative sentiment in the market.

Technical outlook

Brent prices correct downwards; however, the movement continues to develop within an ascending channel. Sellers managed to consolidate below the EMA-65 line, which indicates a weakening of the short-term bullish impulse and the formation of a corrective move.

The Brent forecast for today suggests continued decline towards the lower boundary of the bullish channel, after which oil retains the potential to resume growth towards the 67.35 USD level. The Stochastic Oscillator further confirms the bullish scenario. Its signal lines have turned downwards from overbought territory and are approaching the support line. A rebound from this level would confirm strengthening buying activity and the recovery of the upward movement.

If Brent prices consolidate above 64.25 USD, the bullish scenario will remain the priority, increasing the likelihood of growth towards the specified target.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bullish
• Key resistance levels: 65.25 and 66.45
• Key support levels: 62.85 and 59.75

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A rebound of Brent prices from the key support level at 63.05 USD will indicate the completion of the downward correction and the formation of a new bullish impulse. In this case, the potential for renewed growth within the ascending structure remains.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the take-profit target amounts to 440 pips, with possible losses capped at 125 pips.

• Take Profit: 67.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 61.80 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Opening short positions is considered if prices confidently break below the 61.80 USD support level. This scenario would indicate continued downward movement, with the target of testing the next key support zone.

• Take Profit: 59.75 USD
• Stop Loss: 63.15 USD

Risk factors

Further easing of geopolitical tensions around Iran, combined with continued soft rhetoric from the US amid a breakout below the key 62.85 USD support level, may limit demand recovery and hinder the growth of Brent prices.

Summary

Brent’s failure to consolidate above the 66.45 USD level amid easing geopolitical risks and rising US oil inventories creates conditions for a renewed test of the 62.85 USD support level. At the same time, the current bearish correction within the ascending channel remains technical in nature and may be viewed as a pause before a possible resumption of growth towards the 67.35 USD level as part of the Brent forecast for 15 January 2026.

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