China, OPEC+, and hotspots: will this be enough for Brent to rise?

Brent prices are once again attempting to recover, trading around 65.70 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 3 February 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to a policy of limited oil production
• The outlook for Brent crude remains positive
• Brent forecast for 3 February 2026: 68.50

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 3 February 2026, takes into account that prices are forming an upward wave and are trading around 65.70 USD per barrel.

Key triggers that may influence Brent prices in the current environment include:

• Brent crude prices may continue to rise amid global economic stabilisation. In particular, economic reports from China, one of the largest oil consumers, indicate growing demand, which puts pressure on oil inventories and supports prices
• OPEC+ countries continue to maintain a policy of restricted oil production. This leads to a supply deficit in the market, which in turn supports oil prices
• Oil demand in the US and the EU is steadily increasing due to the gradual economic recovery in these regions
• Political instability in several oil-producing countries, such as Libya, Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela, remains a source of risk for global oil supplies. Potential supply disruptions from these countries could lead to short-term spikes in Brent prices

The Brent forecast for 3 February 2026 remains positive, supported by solid demand and limited supply. However, risks related to geopolitics and the long-term energy transition should be taken into account, as they remain important factors influencing Brent price dynamics.

Technical outlook

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. The market may now begin to follow this signal by developing an upward wave.

The Brent price forecast for 3 February 2026 suggests an upside target of 68.50 USD. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a stronger upward move.

At the same time, an alternative scenario should not be ruled out, in which Brent prices form a downward wave, with the downside target at 64.40 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 68.50 and 69.00
• Key support levels: 63.10 and 64.40

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Brent continues to develop a stable uptrend amid geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar. After forming a correction, prices are attempting to regain ground.

A breakout and consolidation above the 66.70–66.90 zone will signal continued growth towards the next targets at 68.50 and then 69.70 USD. The absence of reversal signals on the H4 timeframe keeps buyers in control.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Upside potential is limited by local resistance, but momentum remains strong.

• Buy Stop: 67.00 USD
• Take Profit: 68.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 66.60 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Limit)

Short-term profit-taking after a sharp rise may trigger a decline from the 65.30–65.20 area. If signs of weakening momentum appear, a pullback towards the nearest support at 64.40 and then 63.10 is possible.

This scenario is considered purely corrective and does not cancel the dominant bullish trend.

• Sell Limit: 65.10 USD
• Take Profit: 63.10 USD
• Stop Loss: 65.60 USD

Risk factors

The main source of uncertainty remains geopolitics. Any further escalation involving Iran, including threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could accelerate price growth and lead to a sharp breakout above resistance levels without corrections. Additional support may come from further weakening of the US dollar.

Summary

Oil prices continue to depend on geopolitical risks and the situation in the Middle East. Brent technical analysis for today suggests a potential rise in prices towards the 68.50 USD area.

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