Brent at a crossroads: geopolitics and global demand may drive new highs

Ahead of the global energy inventories report, Brent quotes are forming a correction and testing the 67.50 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 17 February 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The market is awaiting the global oil inventories report
• Rising energy prices are pushing Brent higher
• Brent forecast for 17 February 2026: 69.80

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 17 February 2026, takes into account that prices are undergoing a correction following recent growth and are currently trading near 67.50 USD per barrel.

Key triggers that may influence Brent quotes in the current environment include:

• Reports on global oil inventories are expected. If they show a decline, this could support further gains in Brent prices. Demand forecasts from China and other major economies remain crucial for price projections
• Tensions in the Middle East continue to act as a key driver for oil. Any deterioration in relations between major exporting countries could lead to risks of supply disruptions, which typically supports higher oil prices
• Rising natural gas and other energy prices may impact oil demand. If gas prices continue to increase, demand for oil as an alternative energy source could grow
• A weaker US dollar continues to have a positive effect on oil prices, as oil is denominated in the USD. Any further dollar weakness makes crude more attractive for investors

Growing global energy demand and geopolitical tensions keep Brent supported, with prices likely to continue their upward trajectory in the future.

Technical outlook

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes continue to develop the upward wave following the pattern signal.

The Brent forecast for 17 February 2026 suggests 69.80 USD as the next upside target. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a more substantial upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario is also possible, in which Brent quotes may form a corrective pullback, with 66.80 USD as the downside target.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 69.80 and 71.05
• Key support levels: 68.80 and 65.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Despite the overall bullish momentum, risks of a corrective wave remain on the Brent chart. A consolidation below 66.80 would create conditions for opening short positions with a downside target at 65.50.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4.

• Take Profit: 65.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 67.05 USD

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

If geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease, quotes may consolidate above the 68.50 resistance level, strengthening buying pressure and creating conditions for a new bullish impulse.

• Take Profit: 70.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 68.00 USD

Risk factors

The main risk to further downside in Brent prices remains a potential easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which could reduce the risk premium related to possible supply disruptions.

Summary

Brent prices remain heavily dependent on the global geopolitical backdrop. Technical analysis suggests further growth towards the 69.80 USD level.

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