Brent prices on the verge of records: decline in US oil inventories could trigger surge

Economic data and a decline in US oil inventories support Brent quotes, which have reached 70.00 USD per barrel. Find out more in our analysis for 19 February 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• US Energy Information Administration crude oil stocks: previously at 8.530 million, projected at 2.300 million barrels
• EIA Cushing crude oil stocks change: previously at 1.071 million, projected at 0.120 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 19 February 2026: 72.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 19 February 2026, takes into account that, after recent gains, prices are forming a correction and trading around 70.00 USD per barrel.

The Brent forecast for 19 February 2026 also considers that, according to the EIA, US crude oil inventories may decline from 8.530 million to 2.300 million barrels. If the actual figure comes in below or in line with the forecast, this will provide additional support to Brent quotes and may trigger further growth.

Today’s Brent analysis also considers the release of EIA Cushing crude oil stocks change data. The forecast suggests a decline to 0.120 million barrels, compared to the previous 1.071 million.

A reduction in inventories may indicate higher consumption or lower supply. In either case, declining oil stockpiles generally support price growth. If the actual reading is equal to or worse than the forecast, this may provoke another upward wave in Brent quotes.

Combined with falling US oil inventories and persistent geopolitical risks, Brent prices may move towards 2025 highs in the near term.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent quotes formed a Hammer reversal pattern after testing the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, they continue to develop an upward wave in line with the pattern signal.

The Brent price forecast for 19 February 2026 suggests an upside target of 72.00 USD. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a more substantial upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario remains possible, in which Brent quotes may form a corrective wave, with the target for a pullback at 68.40 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 71.05 and 72.00
• Key support levels: 68.40 and 65.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

Despite the overall upward momentum, risks of a corrective wave remain. A pullback to 68.40, followed by a rebound from this level, would create conditions for opening long positions targeting 72.00 USD.

The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4.

• Buy Limit: 68.40
• Take Profit: 72.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 68.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

If geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease, prices may consolidate below the 68.40 support level, increasing pressure from sellers and creating conditions for a new bearish impulse.

• Take Profit: 65.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 68.90 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to further Brent growth include an increase in US oil inventories and potential easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

Summary

Amid expectations of US oil inventory data, Brent quotes continue to strengthen, with technical analysis suggesting a move towards 72.00 USD following a minor correction.

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