Explosive growth in Brent oil: geopolitical threat pushes prices to new highs

Brent crude continues to rise amid geopolitical tensions, with prices breaking above 80.00 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 3 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices continue to rise
• The threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is increasing
• The probability of further growth towards the 2024 highs remains
• Brent forecast for 3 March 2026: 84.70

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 3 March 2026, shows that Brent continues its upward momentum and is trading around 80.10 USD per barrel.

The outlook for 3 March 2026 takes into account that Brent crude is caught in the eye of the storm caused by the sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The main shock for the market is the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass.

JPMorgan experts suggest Brent prices could rise to 120.00 USD if the conflict drags on, while Deutsche Bank does not rule out a spike to 200.00 USD in the event of a full blockade of the strait. At the same time, VTB Investments warns that if the conflict ends quickly, prices could fall just as sharply back to 60.00 USD.

Market participants are awaiting clarity on whether the current tensions will mark the beginning of a prolonged energy crisis or represent a short-term speculative surge.

Amid escalating conflicts, Brent prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory towards the 2024 highs.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent quotes have formed a Hammer reversal pattern after testing the lower Bollinger Band and continue their upward momentum in line with the signal.

The Brent price forecast for 3 March 2026 suggests 84.70 USD as an upside target. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a stronger upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario should not be ruled out, where Brent could form a corrective wave, with 77.15 USD acting as the pullback target.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 81.72 and 84.70
• Key support levels: 70.20 and 68.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 81.72 would confirm continued upward momentum, with the first upside target at 84.70. The potential profit is around 298 pips with a risk of approximately 72 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4.

• Take Profit: 84.70 USD
• Stop Loss: 81.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 77.15 would increase corrective pressure and open the way towards 68.50.

• Take Profit: 68.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 77.95 USD

Risk factors

The growth scenario will be challenged if geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease.

Summary

Brent crude continues to rise amid escalating conflict between the US and Iran. Technical analysis suggests further growth towards 84.70 USD.

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