Oil storm 2026: Brent surges amid real threat of supply disruptions

After testing the 84.24 USD level, Brent prices may continue their uptrend and head towards the 100.00 USD area. Find more details in our analysis for 5 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support Brent prices
• Declining global stocks of crude oil and petroleum products are increasing the market deficit
• Brent forecast for 5 March 2026: 88.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 5 March 2026, takes into account that quotes continue their upward trajectory, trading around 82.30 USD per barrel.

The Brent forecast for 5 March 2026 factors in that Brent remains in the eye of the storm caused by the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has moved from a threat to an actual disruption. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, creating a serious risk to the oil market and acting as one of the drivers of Brent’s rally.

Additional factors supporting higher oil prices include:

• EIA reports showing declines in crude oil and refined product inventories are intensifying the deficit and stimulating buying interest
• Forecasts of higher industrial and transport oil consumption in China support a positive outlook for Brent
• Speculative futures positioning – investors and hedge funds are reacting to expectations of escalating crises and supply shortages, which creates short-term price spikes

Against this backdrop, Brent quotes have strong chances to continue rising and may test the 100.00 USD per barrel level in the near term.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after testing the upper Bollinger Band, Brent prices have formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern and are now developing a corrective wave following the signal.

The Brent price forecast for 5 March 2026 suggests 79.00 USD as a correction target. A rebound from the support level may open the way for a more substantial upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario cannot be ruled out: Brent may extend the uptrend without testing the support level, with the upside target at 88.00 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 88.00 and 94.00
• Key support levels: 79.00 and 73.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 83.45 would confirm continued upward momentum, with the first upside target at 88.00. The potential profit is about 455 pips with a risk of around 45 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:10.

• Take Profit: 88.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 83.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 79.00 would increase corrective pressure and open the way towards 68.50.

• Take Profit: 68.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 79.50 USD

Risk factors

The upside scenario would be challenged if the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease.

Summary

Brent prices continue their upward momentum amid geopolitical tensions. Brent technical analysis suggests a rise towards 88.00 USD after a correction.

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