Geopolitical tensions push Brent towards new price records

Geopolitics remains the main driver of oil price gains, with Brent quotes currently standing at 93.70 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 12 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed
• The IEA’s record release of strategic reserves proved largely ineffective
• Brent prices may continue to rise towards 100.00–110.00 USD per barrel
• Brent forecast for 12 March 2026: 104.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 12 March 2026, takes into account that prices are correcting within an overall uptrend, trading around 93.70 USD per barrel.

The Brent outlook for 12 March 2026 also factors in that Brent crude remains in the eye of the storm triggered by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The disruption of key strategic shipping routes poses a serious threat to the oil market and is one of the triggers behind the Brent rally.

Thursday morning brought another round of the price surge: Brent crude futures broke above the psychological 100.00 USD per barrel threshold despite unprecedented efforts by the international community to stabilise the market.

Additional factors supporting the rise in oil prices include:

• An attack by Iranian speedboats on two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel in Iraqi territorial waters. As a result, Iraq fully halted operations at its oil ports, and Oman, as a precaution, evacuated vessels from a key terminal
• The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil flows, remains effectively closed
• US President Donald John Trump, despite saying the war could end soon, effectively confirmed readiness to continue the operation to achieve its goals, creating additional risks to oil production and transportation
• The IEA’s record release of strategic reserves has proven to be a largely ineffective tool in the face of a geopolitical crisis

Against this backdrop, Brent prices may continue their upward trajectory towards 100.00–110.00 USD per barrel.

Technical outlook

Having tested the middle Bollinger Band, Brent quotes formed a Harami reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, prices are attempting to close a price gap; after the correction, Brent may follow the signal via another upward wave.

The Brent price forecast for 12 March 2026 suggests an upside target of 104.30 USD. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a more substantial upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario cannot be ruled out: Brent quotes may extend the correction, with the pullback target at 91.50 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: uptrend
• Key resistance levels: 104.30 and 112.40
• Key support levels: 91.50 and 85.10

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 98.00 would confirm the recovery of the bullish momentum after the sharp correction. In this case, the market may retest the 104.30 level, with further upside potential towards 112.40. The rise would be supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and supply disruptions from the Middle East region.

• Take Profit: 104.30 USD
• Stop Loss: 97.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 91.50 support level would increase selling pressure and indicate a continued corrective move after the recent price spike. In this case, quotes may fall towards 85.10.

• Take Profit: 85.10 USD
• Stop Loss: 92.00 USD

Risk factors

Further upside for Brent could be challenged if the conflict around Iran de-escalates, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are restored, and G7 countries potentially increase the release of strategic oil reserves to stabilise the market.

Summary

Brent remains influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disagreements between the US and Iran. Brent technical analysis suggests further upside towards the 104.30 USD level.

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