Brent is highly volatile: the risk premium remains elevated

Brent prices are holding steady near 100 USD. Ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but the risks are still too high. Discover more in our analysis for 17 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent is stabilising after yesterday’s decline
• The market is watching news on the Strait of Hormuz, crude inventories, and reserve releases
• Brent forecast for 17 March 2026: 104.00 or 107.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude climbed back above 100 USD per barrel on Tuesday after falling nearly 3% in the previous session. The market continues to assess how the Middle East conflict could affect global supply flows.

Prices dipped sharply a day earlier. Concerns about a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz eased after several tankers were able to transit the area safely over the weekend. This increased expectations of a partial restoration of shipping.

Sentiment also improved on reports of talks. India is discussing the deployment of additional vessels, while some countries are in informal contact with Iran to ensure safe transit. The US has signalled it could allow Iranian oil exports to continue through the strait and is urging allies to support the security of commercial shipping. Reports also mention the launch of a direct communication channel between Washington and Tehran.

On the supply side, the US is preparing to start using its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The International Energy Agency has indicated that further releases of global reserves remain possible, which could cap price gains.

The outlook for Brent is favourable.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent shows a sharp acceleration higher in early March. Prices broke out of the 80–85 range and rose above 110.00 in a short period. This move was followed by an equally strong pullback – a downside impulse amid elevated volatility, reflecting profit-taking and post-rally overheating.

In recent sessions, oil has shifted into a recovery-and-consolidation phase. Prices have held above 93.14 and are now trading around 100–101, gradually forming higher lows. Bollinger Bands remain wide but are starting to stabilise, signalling that volatility is easing after the sharp swings.

Nearest resistance is in the 104–107 zone, followed by the key level around 115.33. The support level is located at 93.14, with the next one near 80.03. As long as prices hold above 93, the base case remains a continued recovery, potentially with consolidation before the next impulse.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 104.00 and 107.00
• Key support levels: 93.14 and 80.03

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 101.00 would confirm the recovery after the sharp correction. In this case, the market may extend towards 104.00–107.00 amid ongoing supply risks and a geopolitical risk premium.

• Take Profit: 104.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 97.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 93.14 would increase downside pressure and signal a continued correction after the volatile rally. In this case, quotes may return to the 80.03 area.

• Take Profit: 80.03 USD
• Stop Loss: 95.50 USD

Risk factors

The bullish scenario could lose momentum if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restored on a sustained basis and supply increases via strategic reserve releases.

Summary

Brent may consolidate before the next move. The Brent forecast for today, 17 March 2026, suggests a return towards the 104.00–107.00 area.

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