Global instability: attacks on key facilities in the Persian Gulf drive up Brent prices

Brent crude continues its steady upward momentum amid geopolitical conflicts, with prices testing the 109.00 USD per barrel level. Find out more in our analysis for 19 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Israel attacked the South Pars gas field
• The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed
• Brent prices may renew the 2022 high
• Brent forecast for 19 March 2026: 112.45 or 125.45

Fundamental analysis

Brent fundamental analysis for today, 19 March 2026, takes into account that Brent oil prices are undergoing tectonic shifts amid a full-scale energy confrontation in the Middle East and continue their upward trajectory. At this stage, Brent is trading around 109.00 USD per barrel.

The Brent outlook for 19 March 2026 also considers that Brent remains at the epicenter of the storm, with escalation reaching a new level as key facilities came under attack. Israel attacked the South Pars gas field (the world’s largest), followed by Iran striking the Ras Laffan industrial city in Qatar, where LNG liquefaction capacity is located. The UAE temporarily halted operations at the Habshan gas field and the Bab oil field.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, is effectively closed. Saudi Arabia is intercepting missiles headed towards Riyadh, while Iran is threatening new strikes, issuing evacuation warnings for neighbours’ oil facilities. Regional output losses are estimated at 7–10 million barrels per day.

Short-term forecasts continue to factor in the impact of global political tension and instability on oil markets. In addition, EIA reports showing lower US oil inventories are supporting prices and fuelling optimism in oil markets. However, investors remain cautious and are awaiting new inventory data, which may influence further price moves.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent formed a Hammer reversal pattern after testing the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices continue the uptrend; after a correction, the market may continue an upward wave following the signal.

The Brent price forecast for 19 March 2026 suggests 112.45 USD as the first upside target. A breakout above the resistance level would open the door for a more substantial upward movement and a test of the next resistance level at 125.45.

At the same time, an alternative scenario should not be ruled out, in which Brent quotes may form a correction, with the pullback target at 102.50 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 112.45 and 125.45
• Key support levels: 102.50 and 93.40

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained break above 112.45 would confirm continued upward momentum after a correction. In this case, the market may move towards 125.45 amid persistent geopolitical risks and reduced production.

• Take Profit: 125.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 106.20 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 102.50 support level would increase selling pressure and indicate a continued correction after the rally. In this case, prices may return to the 93.40 area.

• Take Profit: 93.40 USD
• Stop Loss: 103.50 USD

Risk factors

The bullish scenario may lose strength if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is sustainably restored and oil production in the region returns to pre-war volumes.

Summary

Geopolitical risks and the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to push Brent prices to new highs. Brent technical analysis suggests a rise towards 112.45 after a correction and then a move higher towards 125.45.

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