Brent has a chance to rise again: the Middle East remains in conflict

Brent oil recovered some of its losses and returned to 99.40 USD. Negotiations on Iran have not yet been confirmed. Find out more in our analysis for 24 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent crude oil is trying to partially regain lost ground
• News flow around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains in focus
• Brent forecast for 24 March 2026: 100.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent oil futures stood at 99.40 USD per barrel on Tuesday, after recovering part of the previous session’s decline. Iran’s denial of Donald Trump’s statements about negotiations to end the conflict supported the market.

Tehran called the US statements an attempt to influence financial markets and continued attacks on US facilities, while Israel continues strikes on Iranian territory.

Previously, Brent quotes plunged more than 10% after Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and claimed that productive negotiations were taking place. The market interpreted this as an attempt to stabilise prices, which he said would fall sharply if a deal were reached.

The outlook for negotiations and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, keeping market participants cautious.

The conflict has effectively paralysed a key transport route through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. These developments are forcing countries in the region to reduce production significantly.

The Brent forecast is mixed.

Technical outlook

The Brent H4 chart shows that a strong upward momentum formed at the start of the period, with prices climbing from the area around 80 to the zone above 110. The move was accompanied by an expansion of Bollinger Bands, indicating strong demand and faster trend development. However, after reaching new local highs, the market faced sharp profit-taking, which led to a deep pullback.

Prices then moved into a recovery and consolidation phase in the approximate 92–110 range. Quotes gradually formed higher lows, but growth remained unstable. Attempts to consolidate above 110 were accompanied by pullbacks. Bollinger Bands started to narrow, reflecting lower volatility after the sharp movements.

The latest sessions showed a new wave of pressure, with prices falling sharply from the area above 107 to the zone around 92 before rebounding to 99–100. Current dynamics indicate the formation of a sideways range with key resistance in the 110–115 area and the support level around 92. A consolidation above the upper boundary will open the way for continued growth, while a breakout below the support level could increase the risks of a deeper correction.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: neutral-to-upward
• Key resistance levels: 110.00 and 115.00
• Key support levels: 99.00 and 92.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the 100.00 level would confirm a recovery move after the sharp decline. In this case, the market may retest the 110.00 zone, with further upside potential against the backdrop of continuing geopolitical risks and limited supply.

• Take Profit: 110.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 96.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 99.00 support level would increase selling pressure and indicate a renewed decline within the range. In this case, quotes may move towards the 92.00 area.

• Take Profit: 92.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.50 USD

Risk factors

The upside scenario may cease to work if negotiations are confirmed and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, as this will reduce supply disruption risks and ease pressure on the market.

Summary

Brent prices are recovering after the previous day’s collapse because news on Iran has not been confirmed. The Brent forecast for today, 24 March 2026, does not rule out a return to 100.00, from where the next target will be the 110.00 area.

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