Brent oil prices back at 100 USD: what is hidden behind Iran’s threats and geopolitics

After falling sharply, Brent prices are recovering and testing the 100.00 USD mark. Find out more in our analysis for 26 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Iraq and its neighbours are being forced to cut oil production
• Oil continues to trade on the news
• Brent forecast for 26 March 2026: 105.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 26 March 2026, takes into account that Brent crude is playing a dangerous pricing game, recovering the previous session’s losses amid contradictory signals about negotiations between the US and Iran. In the morning, oil prices again moved above the 100 USD per barrel mark.

The main narrative of today is the market’s understanding that the key artery of global oil trade remains paralysed despite a temporary easing in rhetoric. Iran officially notified the International Maritime Organization that it would allow passage through the strait only to vessels from friendly countries, subject to coordination and payment of fees. This has cemented the status quo, under which tanker traffic has fallen from the usual 120 vessels a day to isolated cases. Essentially, the global market is receiving about 20 million fewer barrels a day, while producers such as Iraq are being forced to cut output significantly.

Traditional market factors are being ignored today. Even though commercial oil inventories in the US rose by almost 7 million barrels last week, well above forecasts, this did not restrain prices. The market is now driven solely by fears of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf, where OPEC countries’ output has effectively become hostage to geopolitics.

The Brent forecast for 26 March 2026 takes into account that oil continues to trade on the news, and today’s rise is a reaction to the failure of hopes for a truce. The price has frozen in anticipation of either a real breakthrough in negotiations, which will send quotes down to 90.00 USD, or a new escalation, which will push Brent to 120.00 USD and above.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after testing the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, quotes continue their upward momentum; after a correction, prices may continue to follow the signal with a new upward wave.

The Brent price forecast for 26 March 2026 suggests the 105.50 USD level as the first upside target. A breakout above the resistance level will open the way for a stronger upward wave and a test of the next resistance level at 112.45 USD.

At the same time, the alternative forecast should not be excluded, in which Brent quotes may form a correction before growth; in this case, the retracement target will be 94.40 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 105.50 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 94.40 and 85.20

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 105.50 level would confirm a continued uptrend after the decline. In this case, the market may retest the 112.45 zone, with further upside potential amid persistent geopolitical risks and lower supply.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 105.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 94.40 support level would increase selling pressure and form a downward wave. In this case, quotes may move towards the 85.20 support level.

• Take Profit: 85.20 USD
• Stop Loss: 95.00 USD

Risk factors

Confirmation of negotiations between Iran and the US and the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may stop the rise in Brent quotes, as this will reduce the risks of supply disruptions and pressure on the market.

Summary

Brent prices continue to regain ground. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards the 105.50 USD mark.

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