Brent is on the way to new records – what to expect from prices until 6 April

Brent quotes are forming a correction in anticipation of news from the Middle East and are hovering around 106.20 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 31 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked
• The Bab al-Mandab Strait is under threat of blockade
• Trump wants to reach a deal with Tehran by 6 April
• Brent forecast for 31 March 2026: 112.45

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 31 March 2026, takes into account that Brent crude continues its historic rally, balancing on the edge of an energy collapse. In the morning, May futures quotes reached 115.04 USD per barrel, marking a 2.0% rise for the session and the fourth consecutive day of gains. In the market, prices have tested the 108.87 USD per barrel mark and are forming a correction.

The oil market has faced an unprecedented supply shock because of the simultaneous threat to the world’s two most important maritime arteries:

• Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf): Iran has effectively blocked this passage, through which around 20% of all global oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas usually pass
• Bab al-Mandab Strait (Red Sea): Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, attacked Israel with missiles over the weekend, renewing the threat of a blockade of this key route linking Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal

The Brent forecast takes into account that the market is currently in turmoil due to conflicting statements from Washington, creating a seesaw effect for energy prices:

• Signal for peace: The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told aides he was ready to end the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed
• The hawk returns: however, after that, the White House stated that Trump wants to reach a deal with Tehran by 6 April, his own deadline. At the same time, the President warned that the US would destroy Iranian energy plants and oil wells if the strait is not reopened

Market reality: the market sees no way out of the conflict, because the sides remain very far apart in their demands, despite the rosy picture President Trump is painting.

The oil market is at the epicentre of a perfect geopolitical storm. The real blockade of two straits, direct attacks on infrastructure, and disagreements in the White House have created a powder keg. A Brent price of 115.00 USD may be only the beginning if the conflict is not resolved by the 6 April deadline. Any statement about peace causes a downward correction, but as soon as the market realises that tankers are still not moving, prices rush upwards again and may soon shock the world once more with new price records, even up to a test of 200.00 USD per barrel.

Technical outlook

After testing the upper Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes are forming a correction, with a potential pullback target at 101.75 USD.

At the same time, the alternative forecast for market development should not be ruled out, where Brent quotes may continue to rise without testing the support level.

The Brent price forecast for 31 March 2026 suggests the 112.45 USD level as the first upside target. If resistance breaks, the market will open the way for a stronger upward wave and a test of the next resistance level at 115.00 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 112.45 and 115.00
• Key support levels: 101.75 and 85.20

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 109.50 level would confirm continued upward momentum after the correction. In this case, the market may retest the 112.45 zone, with further upside potential amid persistent geopolitical risks and lower supply.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 109.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 101.75 support level would increase selling pressure and form a downward wave. In this case, quotes may move towards the 85.20 support level.

• Take Profit: 85.20 USD
• Stop Loss: 102.25 USD

Risk factors

Confirmation of negotiations between Iran and the US, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and easing tensions in the Red Sea may stop the rise in Brent quotes, as this will reduce the risks of supply disruptions and pressure on the market.

Summary

Oil continues its uptrend amid statements by the US President and the blocking of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent technical analysis for today suggests a correction before growth, with the 101.75 USD support level as the pullback target.

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