An incredible reversal: Trump’s words turned the Brent market upside down

Oil prices continue to be influenced by statements from the White House and the tense geopolitical backdrop. After falling, quotes have resumed growth and are testing the 106.00 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 2 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The oil market has gone through a real countdown drama
• The President’s address to the nation destroyed hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran
• Europe and other regions are preparing for real fuel supply disruptions as early as this month
• Brent forecast for 2 April 2026: 112.45

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 2 April 2026, takes into account that the oil market has gone through a real countdown drama. A few hours before Trump’s speech, Brent prices fell below the psychological 100.00 USD per barrel mark in anticipation of peace. However, after the US President addressed the nation, prices made a sharp reversal and surged to the 106.00 USD per barrel area.

On the morning of 2 April, the market was under the illusion that a ceasefire was imminent. A day earlier, in an interview with Reuters, Trump hinted that the US would end the war with Iran quite soon. Traders rushed to lock in profits, and Brent fell below 100.00 USD, as if the war premium had evaporated. But the President’s address to the nation destroyed those hopes.

Trump’s key theses that blew up the market:

• Strikes continue: the US will deliver extremely powerful strikes against Iran over the next two to three weeks. “We will send them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” the President stated
• Targets are oil infrastructure: Trump threatened to destroy Iranian energy facilities and oil wells if Tehran does not agree to a deal
• We are finishing the job: at the same time, he stated that the US is close to achieving its strategic goals and will finish the job very quickly

The market reaction was immediate. As soon as investors realised that there was no clear ceasefire plan and that hostilities were not only continuing but could also hit oil facilities, Brent prices surged upwards.

Today clearly demonstrates that the oil market is hostage to every word spoken in the White House. Hopes for peace, which pushed Brent below 100.00 USD in the morning, were destroyed by Trump’s address, which returned prices to the 106.00 USD zone and continues to push them higher.

While missiles continue to hit tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the military premium in oil prices will only increase, while Europe and other regions are preparing for real fuel supply disruptions as early as this month.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after testing the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, quotes are forming an upward wave following the signal, with the upside target at the 112.45 USD resistance level.

At the same time, the alternative Brent price forecast for 2 April 2026 should not be excluded, in which Brent quotes may form a corrective wave and test the support level near 101.75 before further growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 112.45 and 115.00
• Key support levels: 101.75 and 85.20

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 109.50 level would confirm the formation of a new upward wave after the correction. In this case, the market may retest the 112.45 zone, with further upside potential amid persistent geopolitical risks and lower supply.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 109.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 101.75 support level would strengthen selling pressure and form a downward wave. In this case, quotes may move towards the 85.20 support level.

• Take Profit: 85.20 USD
• Stop Loss: 102.25 USD

Risk factors

Confirmation of negotiations between Iran and the US, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and easing tensions in the Red Sea may halt the rise in Brent prices, as this will reduce the risks of supply disruptions and pressure on the market.

Summary

Oil prices remain firmly dependent on White House statements. The energy market is reacting sharply to Trump’s remarks on the geopolitical situation. Brent technical analysis suggests growth towards 112.45 USD.

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