Brent under pressure: how the conflict in the Middle East will be resolved

Brent is hovering around 107.53 USD on Tuesday, with everyone watching Trump’s ultimatum and the Middle East factor. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices remain high, but the market is not yet fuelling a rally
• The commodities market remains unstable and may move sharply in either direction
• Brent forecast for 7 April 2026: 103.00 or 110.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil stabilised at 107.53 USD, with prices remaining near their highest levels since June 2022 amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The market is focused on the deadline set by US President Donald Trump. He warned of possible strikes on Iran’s energy and transport infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if the conditions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are not met.

These risks outweigh signals of a possible convergence of US and Iranian positions in negotiations involving mediators.

For its part, Tehran stated that it is ready to respond to strikes on civilian infrastructure by intensifying attacks on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region. This may worsen the global oil supply deficit.

In addition, the Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected the proposal for a temporary ceasefire, insisting on a complete end to the conflict and the lifting of sanctions as conditions for any agreements.

The Brent forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The Brent H4 chart shows that the market remains in a broad sideways range after strong impulsive moves in both directions. Prices are fluctuating roughly within the 99.00–110.00 range, while the latest candlesticks show a recovery from local lows and a return to the area around 107.00–108.00. Attempts to consolidate above 110.00 have so far failed, suggesting strong resistance.

Bollinger Bands reflect high volatility in the middle of the period, followed by narrowing, which means the market is moving from an impulsive phase into consolidation. Current prices are closer to the middle line, confirming a balance of forces. Sharp moves beyond the channel boundaries were seen earlier, followed by quick returns inside – a sign of an unstable market reacting to news.

The structure remains neutral with attempts to form a local upward momentum. The latest rebound from the 99.00–100.00 zone formed a series of higher lows, which may indicate a gradual recovery in demand. However, without consolidation above 110.00, it is premature to talk about sustained growth. In the near term, continued range-bound movement is likely, with support in the 103.00–100.00 area and resistance at 109.00–110.00.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with an upward bias
• Key resistance levels: 109.50 and 110.00
• Key support levels: 103.00 and 100.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 109.50 level would confirm upward momentum amid geopolitical risks and limited supply.

• Take Profit: 110.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 107.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 103.00 support level would increase selling pressure and indicate a deeper correction within the range.

• Take Profit: 100.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 105.00 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include possible de-escalation of the conflict following Trump’s statements and progress in negotiations, which may reduce the risk premium. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may also ease supply pressure and limit the rise in prices.

Summary

Brent oil will remain within the range with no major news. The Brent forecast for today, 7 April 2026, suggests fluctuations within the 103.00-110.00 range.

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