Brent crude prices fluctuate between hope for peace and the harsh reality of shortages

Brent prices remain in a narrow range while waiting for news on the resolution of the Middle East conflict. Brent quotes are trading around 92.50 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 16 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The Trump administration expressed optimism about concluding a deal with Iran
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• The market is waiting to see what happens: a plunge in Brent to below 90.00 USD, or a new surge to 115.00 USD and above
• Brent forecast for 16 April 2026: 101.75 or 88.70

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 16 April 2026, takes into account that the oil market is going through a dramatic phase, where hope for diplomacy outweighs the harsh reality of supply disruptions. In the morning, Brent quotes remain in the 91.50-92.20 USD per barrel range, reacting to news about a possible resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran.

Two opposing forces have collided in the market, creating a unique situation of false optimism amid a real crisis.

Bearish factor (pushing prices downwards):

• The Trump administration expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran. A source familiar with Tehran’s position told Reuters that Iran may consider allowing free passage of vessels through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached
• Negotiations between the US and Iran are expected to resume on 16 April in Islamabad. Moreover, the possibility of extending the two-week ceasefire, which expires on 21 April, is under discussion

Bullish factor (supporting prices from below):

• Despite the negotiations, the US fleet continues the naval blockade, effectively halting Iran’s economic maritime trade. According to ING estimates, about 13 million barrels of oil per day have disappeared from the global market as a result of the blockade
• The price gap between futures and physical oil remains. The Brent spot price, oil for immediate delivery, is trading around 92.00 USD per barrel, while on Thursday morning, the June Brent futures contract was trading at 95.01 USD. This price gap indicates some panic and shortage in the real-time market

The oil market has frozen in anticipation of the verdict from Islamabad. Futures are falling, believing in peace, but the physical market is crying out about a shortage. The price gap between spot and futures is the price of scepticism and a bet that negotiations may fail. The Brent forecast for 16 April 2026 takes into account that the situation may soon settle: either we will see Brent plummet below 90.00 USD, or a new surge to 115.00 USD and above.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, as the signal plays out, quotes may form an upward wave, with the 101.75 USD resistance level as the upside target.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 16 April 2026 should not be excluded, under which Brent quotes may continue the downward wave and test the 88.70 support level before further growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with an upward bias
• Key resistance levels: 101.75 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 90.55 and 88.70

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 101.75 would confirm the completion of the correction and the continuation of the uptrend amid geopolitical conflicts and lower oil production.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Amid easing tensions in the Middle East, Brent quotes may break below the 90.55 support level and form a corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 85.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 100.15 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are associated with a possible de-escalation of the conflict through a temporary ceasefire or a peace agreement. After Trump’s statements and progress in the next round of negotiations, this may reduce the risk premium. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may also increase production and supply in the energy market, which in turn will limit price growth.

Summary

Oil prices remain hostage to the White House administration, with their future course depending on the outcome of the negotiations between Iran and the US. At this stage, Brent technical analysis suggests growth towards the 101.75 USD level.

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