Brent at the start of a new price rally

Geopolitics continues to push Brent quotes higher and unsettle economies. At this stage, prices are testing the 97.00 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 23 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The IRGC seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
• The negotiations in Pakistan have definitely collapsed
• US fuel inventories plunged
• Brent forecast for 23 April 2026: 112.45 or 93.30

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 23 April 2026 shows that oil prices continue to rise, having confidently consolidated around 97.00 USD per barrel.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the complete lack of progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran, against which real military activity in the Strait of Hormuz is only intensifying.

Drivers of volatility in Brent quotes:

• The IRGC seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces detained two container ships for violating maritime rules, while at least three vessels were fired upon. According to ING estimates, about 13 million barrels per day have disappeared from the global market as a result of the blockade
• The negotiations in Pakistan have definitively collapsed – neither the US nor Iran attended the scheduled round of talks. Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire, but that decision turned out to be unilateral, as Iran did not confirm it
• US fuel inventories plunged: petrol inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels, while the forecast was −1.5 million, and distillates dropped by 3.4 million barrels, indicating explosive demand amid a global reconfiguration of logistics. US exports are hitting records: while the Middle East is gripped by crisis, the US has increased exports of oil and petroleum products to 12.88 million barrels per day, filling the emerging vacuum

The market has found itself trapped by its own optimism. Hopes for a quick truce, which sent oil prices below 90.00 USD last week, have completely evaporated. The reality is that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Iran is seizing vessels, and the US is in no hurry to lift the blockade.

The oil market has frozen in anticipation of the next step from Washington and Tehran. Technically, Brent prices have broken the April high of 99.71 USD, with the next target in the 110.00–115.00 USD zone. The next few days will be decisive – either oil continues its rally towards new highs, or sharply reverses amid unexpected news of diplomatic progress.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue their upward wave following the signal, with the upside target at the 112.45 USD resistance level.

At the same time, the alternative Brent price forecast for 23 April 2026 should not be excluded, in which Brent quotes could form a corrective wave and test the 93.30 support level before further growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with an upward bias
• Key resistance levels: 101.75 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 93.30 and 88.70

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 101.75 level would confirm the completion of the correction and continued upward momentum amid geopolitical conflicts and reduced oil production and supplies.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Amid easing tensions in the Middle East, Brent quotes may break below the 93.30 support level and form a corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 88.70 USD
• Stop Loss: 94.00 USD

Risk factors

Risks to growth are associated with a possible de-escalation of the conflict through a temporary ceasefire or a peace agreement. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may also increase production and supply in the energy market, which in turn could limit price growth.

Summary

The conflict in the Middle East continues to drive Brent prices higher. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards the 112.45 level after a correction.

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