Brent stabilises after a volatile start to the week, but the key developments still lie ahead

Brent is in a strong position at 102.56 USD, with negotiations continuing, while the risk premium remains high. Find out more in our analysis for 28 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices remain in a strong position, while the market is reacting to signals from the Middle East
• The technical structure remains upward
• Brent forecast for 28 April 2026: 104 or 105

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices settled at 102.56 USD per barrel on Tuesday after sharp fluctuations at the start of the week. The market is assessing the prospects for a ceasefire and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s new proposal to the US.

Here is what is known so far. Through Pakistani intermediaries, Tehran signalled readiness to cease hostilities on condition that the naval blockade is lifted, the rules for passage through the strait are revised, and guarantees are given against new military action.

The US reacted to the initiative with caution, with a counterproposal likely to be presented. At the same time, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program remains the key obstacle to an agreement.

The conflict has now entered its ninth week and continues to fuel high energy prices and supply disruptions. The IEA is warning about an unprecedented supply shock and growing risks of a demand slowdown.

The Brent forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The Brent H4 chart shows that after a sharp fall to the area below 90, the market reversed and moved into a confident recovery. A series of higher lows and higher highs has formed, indicating upward momentum. The rise accelerated after the breakout from the local range, with prices now consolidating above the psychological level of 100.

Bollinger Bands are widening, confirming stronger volatility amid the rally. Prices are holding in the upper part of the range and are moving along the upper boundary, suggesting buyer dominance. The nearest resistance level is located in the 104–105 area, while the 99–100 zone is now acting as key support after the breakout.

Indicators are supporting the upward scenario. MACD is in positive territory and continues to rise, signalling stronger bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is holding in overbought territory, indicating trend strength but also increasing the risk of short-term corrections. Overall, the structure remains upward, although the market may move into a consolidation phase after the strong rise.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 104.00 and 105.00
• Key support levels: 100.00 and 99.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 104.00 would confirm continued upward momentum amid persistent supply disruptions and a high geopolitical premium. In this case, quotes may move towards 105.00 and higher.

• Take Profit: 105.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 100.00 would indicate a correction amid possible de-escalation and progress in negotiations. Pressure may intensify with a move towards 99.00.

• Take Profit: 99.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 102.50 USD

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to possible progress in US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which will increase market supply. An additional factor could be lower inflation expectations and a general cooling in demand, which would limit Brent’s upside potential.

Summary

Brent prices continue to rise as the conflict in the Middle East continues. The Brent forecast for today, 28 April 2026, suggests an advance first to 104, then to 105.

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