Brent holds near its highs due to a new round of conflict

Brent is trading at 111.49 USD. Middle East risks remain too high. Find more details in our analysis for 5 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are holding in a steady uptrend
• While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the chances of higher energy prices will remain elevated
• Brent forecast for 5 May 2026: 112 or 113

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil is hovering around 111.49 USD per barrel on Tuesday after jumping nearly 6% the day before, driven by a sharp escalation in the Middle East.

The US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, which increased doubts about the sustainability of the four-week ceasefire. US forces escorted their vessels and stated that they repelled drone and small-boat attacks to protect commercial shipping.

The UAE reported intercepting Iranian missiles and confirmed a fire at the oil terminal in Fujairah, increasing concerns about supply security.

The escalation came amid US plans to restore shipping through the strait, but shipowners remain cautious due to the high risks involved.

Market signals indicate that the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed until the US and Iran reach an agreement. This means pressure on energy prices remains.

The Brent forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The Brent H4 chart shows that after a decline at the beginning of the period, the market formed a reversal and shifted into a steady uptrend. The upward move developed consistently, with a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicating confident buyer dominance. The rise intensified after the breakout from the local range and pushed prices above 110 per barrel.

In the latest sessions, the dynamics have slowed. After testing the 112-113 zone, the market moved into sideways consolidation. Prices are holding in the upper part of Bollinger Bands, confirming the strength of the trend, but also indicating overheated conditions. The 109-110 area is acting as the nearest support, while the 112-113 zone remains the key resistance area, where selling pressure intensifies and profit-taking is taking place.

Indicators show weakening momentum, but not a reversal. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is declining, signalling slower growth. The Stochastic Oscillator is near overbought territory and is turning downwards, suggesting a short-term correction. Overall, the structure remains upward, but the market may enter a consolidation or pullback phase before the next move.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 112.00 and 113.00
• Key support levels: 110.00 and 109.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 112.00 would confirm continued growth amid a persistent geopolitical premium and supply constraints. In this case, the market may move towards 113.00 and above.

• Take Profit: 114.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 110.80 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 110.00 would indicate a correction following market overheating. Pressure may intensify, with a target around 109.00 and below.

• Take Profit: 108.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 111.20 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include a possible de-escalation of the conflict and attempts to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This may reduce the geopolitical premium and ease pressure on prices. At the same time, persistent tensions and supply disruptions will continue to support Brent’s uptrend.

Summary

Brent prices remain high due to risks. The Brent forecast for today, 5 May 2026, does not rule out renewed growth towards 112-113.

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