Brent caught between diplomacy and chaos, the market braces for a sharp move

Following statements from the White House, Brent prices plummeted and are now attempting to recover, hovering near 98.20 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 7 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The White House announced that it was close to signing a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran
• The US President cooled traders’ enthusiasm in an interview
• Trump suspended Project Freedom
• Brent forecast for 7 May 2026: 101.80 or 91.00

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 7 May 2026 shows that oil prices continue to decline after testing the March highs. On Thursday morning, quotes tested the 95.90 USD per barrel level and are currently hovering near 98.20 USD.

The main driver of the current volatility is the multi-move diplomatic game between Washington and Tehran, where every phrase from the White House and every movement by the Iranian military shifts the balance of power in the energy market in a matter of minutes.

The White House stated that it was close to signing a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran. Then, US President Donald Trump gave an interview in which he cooled traders’ enthusiasm, saying that it is still too early for direct negotiations with Tehran. Brent quotes first plummeted on hopes, and then partially recovered as the market realised that the path to a deal is far from smooth.

For its part, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Tehran is studying the US proposal and is ready to provide its response through Pakistani intermediaries in the near future. But the influential Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Raisi characterised the US initiative as more of an American wish list than reality.

On Tuesday, Trump suspended Project Freedom, which was supposed to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing major progress in peace negotiations. Following this announcement, the pause came as a shock to the market precisely because it was unexpected – the operation lasted only two days.

Despite falling prices, the physical US market is signalling that the deficit remains in place. According to EIA data published on Wednesday:

• Commercial oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 million, marking the seventeenth decline in 18 weeks, although it was less than the 3.3 million expected by analysts
• Petrol inventories dropped by 2.5 million barrels, with distillates down by 1.3 million
• US petroleum product exports reached a new all-time high, reaching 8.2 million barrels per day

The oil market is caught in the crossfire of contradictory signals from Washington and Tehran. The same person, the US President, is simultaneously inspiring hopes for a peace deal and threatening bombings at a much higher level.

The physical market is in deficit: US inventories have fallen for 17 of the past 18 weeks, while exports are setting records, but vessels still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if agreements on reopening shipping in the strait are reached as quickly as possible, actual deliveries to the end consumer will not begin earlier than in one to two months, primarily due to logistics and the speed of oil delivery by sea. Until then, the market will continue to experience a shortage of energy resources, and oil prices, including Brent, will remain highly volatile.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, following the received signal, Brent quotes may form an upward wave, with the first upside target at the 101.80 USD resistance level. Subsequently, quotes may head towards 112.45 USD.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 7 May 2026 should not be ruled out, where Brent quotes may continue the downward wave and test the 91.00 support level before rising.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 101.80 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 91.00 and 80.15

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 101.80 would confirm the end of the correction and the start of a new upward wave amid statements from the White House, Tehran, and supply constraints. In this case, the market may head towards 112.45 and above.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.30 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 91.00 would indicate continued downward momentum after market overheating. The fall in Brent quotes may continue towards 80.15 and below.

• Take Profit: 80.15 USD
• Stop Loss: 91.50 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the upside remain linked to a possible de-escalation of the conflict and attempts to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This may reduce the geopolitical premium and ease pressure on prices. At the same time, continued tensions, supply disruptions, and a new stage of confrontation between Iran and the US will continue to support the Brent uptrend.

Summary

Contradictory statements from the White House and from the US President continue to exert mixed pressure on Brent quotes. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards 101.80 USD per barrel.

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