Brent is back in positive territory: geopolitics is setting the course

Brent prices rose to 103.03 USD, with all eyes on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Discover more in our analysis for 12 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are climbing higher due to the ongoing Middle East conflict
• The market is on edge and is increasing the risk premium as the US shifts its stance
• Brent forecast for 12 May 2026: 103.30 and 106.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes advanced to 103.03 USD per barrel on Tuesday, with the market supported by persistent concerns about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz following new statements from US President Donald Trump.

Trump said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is in a critical state after Washington rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal. This increased fears that the Strait of Hormuz may remain effectively closed for a prolonged period.

Iran is demanding that the US end the naval blockade and ease sanctions. At the same time, it is seeking to retain some control over shipping through the strategically important route.

Additional tension is coming from reports that Trump intends to hold a meeting with the national security team to discuss a possible resumption of military operations. New measures to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz are also under discussion.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the global market is already losing around 100 million barrels of oil supply per week. In his view, if the disruptions continue, the market may not return to normal balance until next year.

The Brent forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent crude remains in a highly volatile phase following a strong rally in late April. Quotes moved above 112.00 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and the risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. However, after reaching local highs, the market encountered profit-taking and entered a correction.

In early May, Brent quotes fell sharply to the 95.00–96.00 area, after which sellers began to lose momentum. Prices have now recovered above 102.00 and are stabilising near the middle Bollinger Band. At the same time, the fluctuation range remains wide, indicating continuing nervousness among market participants and sensitivity to the news backdrop.

The technical picture still appears neutral to positive. MACD is gradually turning upwards after a prolonged decline, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in the middle zone without signs of strong overbought conditions. The nearest resistance lies in the 103.50–106.00 area, while support is located around 99.70 and 96.50. Consolidation above 103.50 could prompt buyers to return to the scenario of retesting the May highs.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 103.30 and 106.00
• Key support levels: 99.70 and 96.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 103.30 would confirm a new upward wave amid continuing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of oil supply disruptions. In this case, Brent may continue to move towards 106.00 and above.

• Take Profit: 106.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 102.40 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 99.70 would signal weakening upward momentum after the recent recovery. In this case, the market may undergo a deeper correction towards 96.50.

• Take Profit: 96.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 100.50 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent remains supported by concerns around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, statements from the US and Iran, and the risk of supply disruptions. At the same time, possible de-escalation of the conflict and the restoration of shipping may reduce the geopolitical premium and increase pressure on quotes.

Summary

Brent prices are rising again as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The Brent forecast for today, 12 May 2026, suggests growth towards 106.00 if prices consolidate above 103.30.

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