Brent awaits the outcome of the Beijing summit

Following a rise, Brent quotes declined to the 103.00 USD area and froze ahead of the outcome of the talks between the US President and the President of China. Find out more in our analysis for 14 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• As a result of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have fallen from 8.6 to 8.1 billion barrels
• A summit between the US President and the President of China is taking place in Beijing
• Brent forecast for 14 May 2026: 108.45

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 14 May 2026 shows that oil has frozen near the 103.00 USD mark amid a global decline in inventories and in anticipation of talks between the leaders of the US and China.

On the one hand, the oil market is under pressure from OPEC’s revised demand forecasts, with growth expected to reach around 1.2 million barrels per day. Furthermore, statements by Federal Reserve officials about a possible interest rate hike to fight inflation threaten to slow economic growth and, as a result, lower fuel consumption in the US.

On the other hand, the real sector is reporting energy shortages. According to analysts, due to the conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have fallen from 8.6 to 8.1 billion barrels, with the world seeing the largest quarterly inventory decline in history at 4.8 million barrels per day.

Today, a summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is taking place in Beijing. This event matters more than statistics today, as China, despite sanctions, remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for more than 80% of shipments.

A new factor is adding to geopolitical uncertainty. On 16 May, the US sanctions waiver on Russian oil expires. This means that major buyers such as India may lose a third of their usual supply volumes. Given the shortage, Brent prices could reach new highs and head towards the 150.00 USD per barrel mark.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, Brent quotes may continue their upward wave following the pattern signal, with the first upside target at the 108.45 resistance level. Prices could then head towards 112.45 USD.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 14 May 2026 should not be ruled out, where Brent quotes may continue their corrective wave and test the 102.00 support level before growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 108.45 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 102.00 and 96.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 108.45 would confirm a new upward wave amid the talks in Beijing, continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and risks of oil supply disruptions. In this case, Brent prices may continue to move towards 112.45 and above.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 108.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 102.00 would signal weakening upward momentum after the recent rise. In this case, the market may move into a deeper correction towards 96.50.

• Take Profit: 96.50 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent remains supported by concerns around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, statements from the US and Iran, and risks of supply disruptions. At the same time, a positive outcome from the Beijing summit and the restoration of shipping may reduce the geopolitical premium and increase pressure on prices.

Summary

Brent crude oil is awaiting the outcome of the Beijing talks on the Middle East conflict. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards 108.45 after the correction.

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