Brent is hoping for miracles of diplomacy, time is running out

Brent is holding at 106.35 USD and awaiting news about the Middle East negotiations. For now, the chances of diplomacy are limited. Find more details in our analysis for 19 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are reacting to the news, but moving into a short-term sideways range
• There will be more information on the Middle East over the next day or two
• Brent forecast for 19 May 2026: 108.80

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude is hovering around 106.35 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Earlier, the commodity gave back some of its gains after Donald Trump said that he had cancelled the planned strike on Iran, strengthening market hopes for a possible resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

According to market rumours, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE asked the US not to rush into military action, as the parties are already engaged in serious negotiations. At the same time, Iran has not yet officially confirmed this information.

Before the correction, oil prices had risen for more than a week in a row amid a deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil trade.

Iran’s nuclear program and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remain the main obstacles to reaching an agreement between the sides.

The market also focused on the US decision to issue a new permit for the sale of Russian oil and oil products that had already been loaded onto tankers.

The Brent forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent crude maintains an upward structure after recovering from the May lows in the 95.00–96.00 area. After a sharp decline at the start of the month, the market gradually regained ground and climbed above 106.00 per barrel. Supply disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz and continuing geopolitical tensions continue to support quotes.

Brent is now trading around 106.30, holding above the middle Bollinger Band. Recent sessions have seen sideways consolidation following strong gains, although a series of higher lows indicates that buyers are still in control. Volatility is gradually declining, which may suggest that the market is gearing up for the next impulsive move.

The technical picture remains moderately positive. MACD is holding in positive territory and is gradually stabilising after the rise. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from the middle area, signalling an attempt by buyers to regain momentum. The nearest resistance is in the 108.80–110.90 area, while support levels are located around 104.70 and 102.60. As long as Brent quotes hold above 104.70, the outlook for further gains remains intact.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 108.80 and 110.90
• Key support levels: 104.70 and 102.60

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A move and consolidation above 108.80 would confirm continued upward momentum amid supply disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing tensions around Iran. In this case, Brent may continue to rise towards 110.90 and above.

• Take Profit: 110.90 USD
• Stop Loss: 108.10 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 104.70 support level would signal weakening buyers after the recent rise and may lead to a deeper correction towards 102.60.

• Take Profit: 102.60 USD
• Stop Loss: 105.30 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains highly sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by risks around the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran negotiations, and fears of supply disruptions. At the same time, any signs of diplomatic progress may reduce the geopolitical premium and increase pressure on prices.

Summary

Brent prices are reacting to the full range of news from the Middle East. The Brent forecast for today, 19 May 2026, suggests growth towards 108.80.

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