Brent between decline and growth: who will win the battle for oil

Following statements from the White House, Brent prices plummeted and are now regaining lost ground. Quotes currently stand at 103.00 USD per barrel. Find more details in our analysis for 21 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Hopes for peace briefly sent Brent prices plummeting
• Iran stated that 26 vessels crossed the strait over the past 24 hours
• Shipping through the strait is operating at 30-40% of pre-war volumes
• Brent forecast for 21 May 2026: 108.45

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 21 May 2026 shows that oil, amid contradictory signals from the US and Iran on Wednesday, has declined and is now forming an upward wave. At this stage, Brent quotes are testing the 103.00 USD per barrel level.

Hope for peace brought prices down, but awareness of how fragile that hope is is preventing oil prices from falling further. The market has become hostage to every new statement from the parties involved in the Middle East conflict.

The physical supply picture remains tense, although signs of a timid recovery have appeared. Over the past week, at least 54 vessels passed through the strait, which is roughly twice as many as a week earlier. Iran stated that 26 vessels crossed the strait over the past 24 hours. But the broader picture matters: before the war, 125 to 140 vessels passed through the strait every day. Current figures remain far from this level, and the supply shortage persists.

According to EIA data published on Wednesday, US commercial oil inventories declined last week, while demand remains elevated.

The oil market is living in two parallel realities. Oil futures fall at every hint of peace, but the physical market remains under strain – the strait is operating at 30-40% of pre-war volumes, and global inventories continue to decline. Trump is simultaneously talking about the final stage of negotiations and then immediately threatening unpleasant things. Iran is studying the proposal, but is not making any concessions.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, as the signal from the pattern plays out, Brent quotes could continue their upward wave, with the upside target remaining at the 108.45 USD resistance level. Brent quotes may then move towards the 112.45 USD mark.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 21 May 2026 should not be ruled out, where Brent quotes could continue the corrective wave and test the 100.60 support level before growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 108.45 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 100.60 and 94.45

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 108.45 would confirm continued upward momentum amid the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing tensions around Iran. In this case, Brent may continue to rise towards 112.45 and above.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 108.10 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 100.60 support level would signal weakening buyers after the recent rise and may lead to a deeper correction towards 94.45.

• Take Profit: 94.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 100.95 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains highly sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by risks around the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran negotiations, and fears of supply disruptions. At the same time, any signs of progress in US-Iran agreements may push prices lower.

Summary

After the rapid decline amid statements by the US President, Brent quotes are recovering lost ground. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards 108.45 USD.

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