Brent in positive territory: tensions are rising again in the Strait of Hormuz

Brent prices are rising towards 95.22 USD, driven by the news. Risks of complications in the Middle East are once again a concern. Find more details in our analysis for 26 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent crude is on the rise due to US strikes on Iranian boats
• The framework ceasefire agreement has still not been agreed upon
• Brent forecast for 26 May 2026: 97.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices climbed to 95.22 USD per barrel on Tuesday, partially recouping losses of the previous sessions. The market remains highly nervous amid new US military operations in southern Iran and ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

According to media reports, the US military struck missile facilities and vessels that may have been used to deploy naval mines. US Central Command stated that the operations were aimed at protecting US military personnel in the region.

At the same time, Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were progressing successfully. However, he also warned of the possibility of further strikes if the diplomatic process fails.

The US and Iran are currently discussing a framework agreement to extend the ceasefire for approximately two months. During this period, Washington may ease the blockade, while Tehran may restore full shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite Tuesday’s rebound, oil prices remain more than 10% below last week’s levels amid growing optimism around a possible agreement between the US and Iran.

The Brent forecast is neutral.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent crude remains under strong pressure after a sharp downward reversal from the May highs in the 108–109 USD per barrel area. The latest downward wave intensified amid expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran and hopes for the restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, quotes quickly dropped below the key 100 USD support and moved into the 93–95 USD area.

Brent prices are now trading around 95.20 USD, remaining near the lower Bollinger Band. Following the impulsive drop, the market is attempting to stabilise, but a full-fledged recovery is not yet visible. Recent candlesticks indicate a short-term consolidation phase following a strong sell-off. The nearest resistance is located in the 97.30–99.50 area, while the support level remains near 92.80–93.00. While Brent quotes remain below 99.50, sellers retain the advantage.

The technical picture is negative. MACD is holding deep in negative territory and continues to point to persistent bearish pressure, although the pace of decline is starting to slow. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from oversold territory, signalling the probability of a local technical rebound after the sharp fall. However, for a full recovery, the market needs to consolidate above 97.30–99.50. Otherwise, the risks of a retest of the 93.00 area remain.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with signs of local stabilisation
• Key resistance levels: 97.30 and 99.50
• Key support levels: 92.80 and 90.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 97.30 would indicate a technical rebound after the sharp fall and create conditions for Brent to recover amid new risks around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Take Profit: 99.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 96.40 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 92.80 support level would add to pressure on Brent and confirm continued downward momentum amid expectations of an agreement between the US and Iran and a possible recovery in oil supplies.

• Take Profit: 90.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 93.60 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to any news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by US strikes on facilities in southern Iran, risks around the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over negotiations between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, progress in the diplomatic process and expectations of restored shipping continue to limit oil’s upside potential.

Summary

Brent prices climbed higher amid the challenging external environment. The Brent forecast for today, 26 May 2026, does not rule out a test of 97.30.

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