Brent on the verge of a new surge: geopolitics continues to drive up oil prices

After falling, Brent prices are attempting to regain lost ground amid a new round of escalation in the Middle East conflict. Quotes are testing the 94.50 USD per barrel level. Find more details in our analysis for 28 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• After the decline, Brent prices are attempting to recover
• Iranian media reported on a plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
• The US President stated that he is dissatisfied with the progress of the negotiations
• Brent forecast for 28 May 2026: 100.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 28 May 2026 shows that oil prices have rebounded after plummeting by more than 5% the previous day. Quotes are currently testing the 94.50 USD per barrel level.

The market plunged on news of a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran. Iranian media reported a plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war conditions, with the US expected to abandon the blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw US armed forces.

The euphoria proved premature, as the US administration dismissed the reports of an agreement as untrue. The US President stated that he is not satisfied with the progress of the negotiations.

The oil market is swinging between hopes for peace and the reality of military strikes. Yesterday’s 5% decline, driven by expectations of a deal between the US and Iran, has given way to today’s rise following new air strikes and denials from the White House. Rising tensions may trigger a new upward wave, with Brent prices reaching their March 2026 highs.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent quotes formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices could continue the upward wave as the signal plays out, with the first upside target at the 100.50 USD resistance level. Quotes could then head towards 112.45 USD.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 28 May 2026 should not be ruled out, where Brent quotes could continue their downward trajectory and test the 91.80 USD support level before growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with signs of local stabilisation
• Key resistance levels: 100.50 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 91.80 and 85.20

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 100.50 would indicate a technical rebound after the sharp fall and create conditions for Brent to recover amid new risks around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 100.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 91.80 support level would intensify pressure on Brent and confirm continued downward momentum amid expectations of an agreement between the US and Iran and a possible recovery in oil supplies.

• Take Profit: 85.20 USD
• Stop Loss: 92.30 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to any news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by US strikes on facilities in southern Iran, risks around the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over negotiations between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, expectations of restored shipping continue to limit oil’s upside potential.

Summary

Amid uncertainty in the dialogue between the US and Iran, oil prices are experiencing elevated volatility. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards 100.50 USD after the correction.

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