Gold (XAUUSD) freezes before a breakout: new U.S. data may trigger an explosive move

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut did not trigger a rally in XAUUSD. Gold continues to move sideways, trading near 4,210 USD. More details in our analysis for 11 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: previous – 191K, forecast – 220K
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 December 2025: 4175 or 4300

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD outlook shows that gold remains within a sideways channel, trading around 4,210 USD per ounce.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time over the previous week. This indicator assesses labor market conditions, and an increase suggests rising unemployment.

The previous value was 191K, while the forecast for today signals a jump to 220K. The change is substantial, and the publication of actual data will clarify the real state of the labor market. Figures matching or exceeding expectations may weaken the USD.

The Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to 3.75%, in line with market expectations, and gold barely reacted. XAUUSD only posted a minor gain, remaining within its previous range. A potential trigger for a larger move may come from next week’s U.S. economic data releases.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. This may lead to a downward wave as the pattern is being worked out. Since the price remains within the broader ascending channel, the next downside target is 4,175 USD.

However, today's XAUUSD technical outlook also allows for an alternative scenario—an immediate rise toward 4,300 USD without testing support.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 December 2025 is neutral. The pair continues to move inside a horizontal channel. Technical analysis suggests considering a correction toward 4,175 USD before the next upward wave.

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