Gold (XAUUSD) corrects ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

The price of XAUUSD declined to 4,270 USD during a downward correction amid profit-taking by investors ahead of US employment data. Details — in our analysis for 16 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today the market’s attention is on US employment data — Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate
• Current trend: a downward correction is observed
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 December 2025: 4,350 or 4,270

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes fell to the 4,270 USD per ounce level as investors locked in profits ahead of the release of US labor market statistics. During the US session, the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures will be published.

Employment data may influence expectations regarding changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. At present, markets estimate a 75.6% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. At the same time, some analysts expect two additional rate cuts over the course of next year.

Emerging prospects of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are also reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes have corrected into the price area below the 4,300 USD level. The daily trend, confirmed by the Alligator indicator, remains upward, indicating the possibility of a continuation of the bullish move once the current correction is completed.

Within the framework of the short-term price forecast for XAUUSD, it can be assumed that if bulls manage to regain control, growth toward resistance at 4,350 USD may follow. If bears succeed in extending the decline, a further correction toward support at 4,270 USD is possible.

Summary

Gold is undergoing a moderate correction, falling to the 4,270 USD level. Today, the market’s focus is on US employment data.

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