XAUUSD retains attractiveness amid geopolitical tensions

XAUUSD prices are showing signs of recovery after a sharp sell-off, holding above key levels. The current quote is 4,366 USD. Details — in our analysis for 30 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The market factors in expectations of U.S. monetary policy easing in the medium term
• Investors are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026
• President Donald Trump is expected to announce Jerome Powell’s successor early next year
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 December 2025: 4,515

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are recovering after a sharp decline of more than 4% recorded the previous day. The price managed to hold above the key support at 4,320 USD, indicating sustained buying interest near important technical levels.

Gold’s investment appeal as a safe-haven asset remains high amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated risks to the global economy. Additional market focus is directed toward expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. Investors are currently pricing in two interest rate cuts in 2026, although there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve: most officials still allow for only one rate cut next year.

Another source of uncertainty is the upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair. President Donald Trump is expected to announce Jerome Powell’s successor early next year, and this decision could significantly influence market expectations regarding the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD prices corrected after rebounding from the upper boundary of the bullish channel, but buyers have already managed to halt the decline. The price is stabilizing near the EMA-65 support, indicating a weakening of corrective pressure and increasing the probability of a new bullish impulse forming soon.

The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a resumption of growth toward 4,515 USD. An additional argument in favor of further upside comes from the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal lines have turned down from the overbought area and are approaching the ascending support line, which often precedes renewed buying activity.

The technical outlook in favor of growth will improve further if prices achieve a sustained breakout above the 4,425 USD resistance. Such a scenario would confirm a break above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel and create conditions for continued upside movement.

Summary

Holding XAUUSD prices above the 4,320 USD support amid sustained demand for safe-haven assets points to buyer resilience. Stabilization above the EMA-65 and improving oscillator signals confirm a high probability of the correction ending and the resumption of a bullish XAUUSD outlook, with a target at 4,515 USD.

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