Gold (XAUUSD) is not rising yet: time for consolidation

Gold (XAUUSD) prices returned to 4,600 USD. The market is monitoring risk sentiment and the Federal Reserve. Find more details in our analysis for 16 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market focus: gold (XAUUSD) remains in a consolidation phase after reaching new highs
• Current trend: the technical picture for gold (XAUUSD) remains bullish
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 January 2026: 4,520 or 4,560

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices declined to 4,600 USD per ounce on Friday. Losses from the previous session persisted amid weakening demand for safe-haven assets and reduced expectations of an imminent easing of Federal Reserve policy.

Geopolitical risks around Iran temporarily decreased after US President Donald Trump indicated that military action could be postponed following Tehran’s statements that it would not execute protesters. Markets were further calmed by reports that Israel and other US allies in the Middle East urged Washington not to rush a potential strike on Iran.

Strong US macroeconomic data published on Thursday also weighed on prices, prompting investors to scale back bets on near-term interest rate cuts. With economic momentum stable, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting.

Despite the correction, gold gained more than 2% over the week. This marked the second consecutive week of gains, with prices remaining near all-time highs.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) maintains a medium-term upward structure, but in recent sessions, the market has shifted into a consolidation phase following a sharp impulsive rally.

After accelerating upwards in early January, prices confidently broke above the 4,520–4,560 zone and formed a new high near 4,640. This was followed by a correction and a transition into sideways movement. Currently, quotes are hovering within the 4,560–4,620 range, indicating a pause in the trend and a redistribution of positions. Prices remain above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.

At the same time, the upper band has begun to flatten, and the range is narrowing, which is a typical sign of consolidation after a strong move. Attempts to rise above 4,620–4,640 continue to meet profit-taking, while declines are bought in the 4,560–4,520 area, which acts as the nearest support.

Overall, the technical picture remains neutral-to-bullish. The structure of highs and lows remains intact, and the upward momentum from early January persists. To resume growth, the market will need to consolidate above 4,640. A loss of the 4,520–4,510 zone would increase the risks of a deeper correction towards 4,475–4,450, but this scenario is not considered the base case at present.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bullish (with a consolidation phase)
• Key resistance levels: 4,620 and 4,640
• Key support levels: 4,560 and 4,520

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Holding above the 4,560–4,520 USD zone and an upside breakout from the current consolidation will indicate market readiness to resume the upward movement after a pause.

The risk-to-reward ratio stands at around 1:2. Potential profit upon reaching the target amounts to approximately 80–100 pips, while possible losses are limited to 40–50 pips.

• Buy Stop: 4,625 USD
• Take Profit: 4,650 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,585 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A short scenario is possible if prices break and consolidate below the 4,520 USD support zone, which will increase the risks of a deeper correction after the strong impulsive growth in early January.

• Sell Stop: 4,515 USD
• Take Profit: 4,450 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,555 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the bullish scenario include a further reduction in geopolitical tensions around Iran, strong US macroeconomic data that could reduce expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as profit-taking after two consecutive weeks of gold gains.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ends the week with a gain of around 2% despite the recent correction. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 16 January 2026, does not rule out consolidation within the 4,520–4,560 range.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.