XAUUSD: consolidation above 5,105 USD is critical for bullish momentum

XAUUSD prices continue to demonstrate strong momentum amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, currently trading at 5,075 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 27 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold remains in demand as a safe-haven asset amid trade and geopolitical tensions
• Bulls need to gain a foothold above the 5,105 USD level; otherwise, a reversal candlestick formation may be confirmed and trigger a correction
• Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that begins today
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 January 2026: 5,215

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are strengthening for the seventh consecutive trading session. Today, buyers are testing the key resistance level at 5,105 USD, which they failed to overcome yesterday. Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid persistent trade and geopolitical tensions. It is important for bulls to gain a foothold above this level; otherwise, a reversal candlestick formation on the daily XAUUSD chart may be confirmed, which could trigger a deeper correction.

US President Donald Trump announced an increase in tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%. In addition, the risks of a temporary shutdown of the US federal government are growing, as funding expires on 31 January and Congress may fail to approve a new budget in time.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that begins today. Although interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will closely monitor comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a minor correction; however, the bullish momentum remains strong, as evidenced by regular upward rebounds after testing the EMA-65 line.

The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests continued growth towards the 5,215 USD level. The Stochastic Oscillator further confirms the bullish scenario: its signal lines rebounded from the ascending support line and formed a bullish crossover, which is already increasing buying pressure. Another supportive signal for growth could be a rebound from the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which acts as dynamic support for bulls.

The key condition for the upward momentum to continue will be the consolidation of XAUUSD quotes above the 5,105 USD level. This zone previously limited upside movement, so a breakout above it significantly increases the likelihood of reaching the target level at 5,215 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,105 and 5,155
• Key support levels: 5,050 and 4,975

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Another consolidation of XAUUSD prices above the EMA-65 line indicates a sustained ascending structure despite selling pressure near the key resistance level. Consolidation above 5,105 USD will confirm a breakout of the key resistance zone and create conditions for a long scenario. Potential profit upon reaching the take-profit level is around 10,500 pips, while potential losses are capped at 3,000 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Take Profit: 5,215 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,075 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation of XAUUSD prices below the 5,075 USD level will indicate that the bullish momentum cannot continue and that a bearish correction is forming, with the potential to test and break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

• Take Profit: 5,005 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,110 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the continuation of the bullish move in XAUUSD are a failure to consolidate above the 5,105 USD level and the possible confirmation of a reversal candlestick formation on the daily gold chart, which could trigger a deep bearish correction.

Summary

The persistent geopolitical backdrop, higher tariffs on South Korean goods, and the risks of a US government shutdown continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The XAUUSD forecast for today indicates continued bullish momentum with the potential for growth towards 5,215 USD, if prices consolidate above the 5,105 USD level.

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